Wednesday, March 25, 2026 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Headline Tape — Stay Tacticalby Tony Rago We’re still chopping around the weekly pivots, and that’s keeping things tight and reactive. Bulls continue to struggle to hold any meaningful extension, which tells you momentum isn’t sticking — every push higher is getting met with supply. When price hovers around key pivot levels like this, it…
Oil Is Driving the Entire Market
Gianni Di Poce just connected two dots that most traders are missing. Crude oil and the VIX are tracking each other almost tick for tick on the 15 minute chart. That correlation explains why rallies keep failing. Gianni laid out the data clearly… Rising energy prices create the worst forward return environment for stocks compared…
Why Gold Fell During a War
Hey trader, The safe haven trade is broken. Gold rallied on the first day of the Persian Gulf conflict…it’s been falling ever since. You would think war means higher gold prices as money flees to safety. But that’s not what actually drives the metal. Gold responds to money supply. Right now, the money supply is…
Chart Patterns Aren’t Real Until THIS Happens
When is a chart pattern NOT a chart pattern? When it hasn’t been CONFIRMED! Far too many of us jump the gun, letting FOMO drive our decisions. The scary part is you probably do this without realizing it. That’s what I am to correct today. I want you to trade signals, not possibilities. During today’s…
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Inside Balance — Waiting on the Breakby Tony Rago We’re opening up inside yesterday’s range, and that typically signals balance — a market that’s waiting on its next catalyst before committing direction. When we sit inside prior range like this, it often becomes a two-sided trade until something breaks us free. I’ll be keyed in…
Institutions Are Betting Both Sides
Brandon Chapman just pulled up today's block trade data, and institutions are placing massive bets on the Persian Gulf outcome. Both outcomes. The BlockHunter console screened 1,780 option trades today and narrowed them down to 39 block trades of 1,000 contracts or more. The pattern tells you exactly how big money is positioning. The VIX…
The Energy Play in Semiconductors
Hey trader, The semiconductor supply chain has a vulnerability that almost nobody is watching. Traders are focused on oil prices and airlines when they think about the Persian Gulf conflict. The second-order effect matters more. Taiwan manufactures the processors that power Nvidia, Apple, and AMD. Those factories run on liquefied natural gas. And Taiwan has…
I woke up in the middle of the night and knew they had to do something.
I woke up in the middle of the night to use the bathroom, looked at the futures, and thought: they have to do something. I have been watching vol for thirty years. I built the expected move framework at thinkorswim from scratch. When the S&P is melting away at 3 AM, you do not need…
The weekly expected move was $188.88. The market tested both edges this morning.
The weekly expected move for the S&P this week is $188.88. That means the options market, before a single tweet dropped, before a single headline ran, priced in a range of roughly 6,508 on the downside to 6,695 on the upside. Write those numbers down. Because everything that happened this morning fits inside that range…
Gold Just Crashed 20%. Most Traders Still Don't Know Why.
Hey trader, Gold isn’t the investment you think it is. In fact, it’s the worst-performing asset class of 2026. It’s fallen harder than bonds, stocks, and crypto. In less than two weeks, gold suffered a 20% correction. Traders who rushed in to buy a war hedge are now staring at blown accounts. They truly didn’t…