How the Market Robbed Everyone on Wednesday
Hey trader, Wednesday morning, I took a textbook Bollinger Band breakout on the euro. Every rule was followed…Every box was checked. I lost $100 in under fifteen minutes. The euro spiked 20 pips and gave back all 20 within minutes. Gold did the same thing. So did the Nasdaq. So did the S&P 500. Four…
Google Just Did What DeepSeek Did. The $5 Trillion Server Farm Bet Just Got More Interesting.
Google just did it again. This week Google published research showing their new algorithm processes AI memory at eight times the efficiency of current methods. Eight times the output. Same hardware. I heard it and said it immediately. That is another DeepSeek moment. Here is the background for anyone who missed DeepSeek a year ago.…
When Big Prints Get Buried
Hey trader, Institutional call buying usually creates mechanical pressure on the upside. Dealers who sell those calls must buy shares to hedge, and that hedging drives the stock higher. Today, three separate banks saw massive call prints. The stocks went down anyway. That disconnect tells you something important about the current tape. The selling pressure…
Eleven Consecutive Weeks Inside the Expected Move. You See Calm. I See a Trap.
Eleven consecutive weeks inside the expected move. You see a calm market. I see a trap. Here is the number that should be keeping you up at night. The expected move is what the options market prices in as the likely weekly range for the S&P 500. When the index closes inside that range at…
Thursday, March 26, 2026 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Sell the Rally — Until Proven Otherwiseby Tony Rago We’re still operating in a “sell the rallies” environment, and that framework hasn’t changed. As long as price remains below the 200-day moving average — a widely watched trend indicator that helps define longer-term direction — the bears maintain the edge. That doesn’t mean we won’t…
The Damage Under the Surface
Everyone is staring at the geopolitical headlines. They're missing what's actually breaking. Microsoft is down 21% year to date. From its recent high, it's off more than 30%. That puts it in a full-blown bear market. The S&P 500 is barely down 6% from the highs. Traders are panicking like the world is ending. The…
Two Superfly butterflies closed this morning. Both over 100%
Yesterday I placed three Superfly trades live on camera. Tesla butterfly. Broadcom butterfly. Meta butterfly. All three structured around expected move edges. All three zero DTE, meaning options that expire the same day. This morning I closed two of them. Tesla closed at $1.35. We paid 65 cents yesterday. That is 108% in one…
When Institutions Recalculate
Hey trader, A new block trade tells you someone has a thesis. A roll tells you they recalculated the timing. That distinction matters. A roll costs real money and produces no new exposure. The only thing it changes is urgency. An institution holding IWM puts at the $238 strike closed that position today and reopened…
Three trades I just walked through on Schwab — one's falling apart, one's about to snap, one can't catch a bid
I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. The market's in full volatility mode right now. Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. You just need to be positioned.…
Five Phases Away From a Real Bottom
Hey trader, Microsoft is down 15% from its highs. That’s cheap for a tech growth company. And no matter what happens in Iran, Microsoft should do well… …except for one problem… The worst isn’t behind them. It’s about to hit them head-on. Anyone who falls into this trap, one I’ve seen time and again…