The 43rd time is the charm
The 43rd Time Is the Charm Peace in the Middle East was priced in again this morning. The market is finally past it. Peace got priced in this morning. That makes 43 times in two months, give or take. Today's headline was Iran will be allowed to sell oil while negotiating. Crude dropped on the…
Commodities SKID as Biotech and EVs Bid
Gold and oil see red as biotech and EVs were bid strongly (QS, PLUG, FCEL). The option activity points to a potentially volatile week in Biotech (MRNA, CLOV, NVAX) and EV names as the RSI indicator for the S&P 500 is sitting at an extreme level…
$60 expected move on the S&P today
Mr. Toad's Wild Ride The S&P expected move for today is $60. Here is what that is telling you. My power went out at 5 am this morning. Construction crew cut a cable and the whole area was down. When you lose power in Phoenix, you have until about 9 am before things get ugly.…
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Big Move — Now We Waitby Tony Rago Overnight delivered a sizable move, and when price travels that far outside of regular hours, it tends to distort the usual structure we rely on at the open. That puts more weight on the opening range — the first stretch of price action after the bell —…
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 - Tony's Pre-Market Playbook
Hanging Tough — But Something Feels Offby Tony Rago Crude pushing up near 115 pre-market while equities are holding firm above 24,000 and 6,600 — on the surface, that’s strength, but the tone feels a bit disconnected. When you see multiple markets stretched like this without clean continuation, it often leaves the door open for…
How I Trade a Bear Market Playing Ping Pong
Hey trader, Every day, I pick up my daughter from school at 10:00 A.M. I have road rage the whole way there and back. She sits in the passenger seat and white-knuckles it while I fight Chicago traffic. What she does not know is that by the time I get home, PayPal has already paid…
The Silent Tech Story
Hey trader, Holiday weekends tend to produce strange market behavior. I've seen it happen dozens of times over the years. Human traders leave their desks early. The algorithms take over with one less day in the trading week. Last week was no exception. Markets experienced a sharp rebound after breaking through a key technical level.…
Why a $5 Crude Pullback Changes Nothing About Energy
Hey trader, Crude oil dropped $5 on Thursday after Iran-Oman negotiation headlines hit. If that pullback made you start looking for energy shorts, the math says you are wrong. Wednesday's futures open was $98.84. Thursday's high was $113. Oil is still up $10 in two sessions. The supply deficit that drove this rally has not…
My Favorite Way to Trade Headlines
Hey trader, Headlines can move markets in a blink, whipping traders out of positions before they can even react. You do not have to let them control your trading. All you need is a plan you trust. That is what kept me grounded this week. Tuesday morning, I was walking the room through an ES…
How Options Traders Are Targeting Ford
Hey trader, Someone just bought downside protection on Ford through the earnings window. The position was over 3,000 contracts at the $10 strike for May 1 expiration, and the open interest jump confirms every one of them was brand new. Someone placed a fresh directional bet that Ford reaches $10 inside a month. If you…
When Oil Rips, Markets Slip
Oil just ripped 11% overnight and closed at $111. That single data point makes me unable to get bullish on this market by any stretch. We are heading into a three-day weekend with gasoline prices about to explode. Five and six dollar a gallon gas triggers what traders call demand destruction, and it will crush…