The 43rd Time Is the Charm Peace in the Middle East was priced in again this morning. The market is finally past it. Peace got priced in this morning. That makes 43 times in two months, give or take. Today's headline was Iran will be allowed to sell oil while negotiating. Crude dropped on the
400,000 SPX contracts traded before the cash open this morning. You think the volatility is over? Look at that number and tell me with a straight face things have quieted down. They have not. Which is exactly why I waited. Yesterday, an hour before the close, I put on two Superfly trades. Tesla and
In the middle of every serious down market, something happens that catches everyone off guard. A rip. Not a bounce. A rip. The kind of move where the S P is up 140 points in a single session and every short in the market is scrambling to cover. The kind of day where people who have
Look at the tape this week. Meta down. Nvidia slipping. Google off. Financials finally rolling over after holding up for two weeks. S P headed for its fifth straight losing week. And then there is one name. Sitting right at the top. Untouched. While everything else is getting taken out. You want to
Google just did it again. This week Google published research showing their new algorithm processes AI memory at eight times the efficiency of current methods. Eight times the output. Same hardware. I heard it and said it immediately. That is another DeepSeek moment. Here is the background for anyon
Yesterday I placed three Superfly trades live on camera. Tesla butterfly. Broadcom butterfly. Meta butterfly. All three structured around expected move edges. All three zero DTE, meaning options that expire the same day. This morning I closed two of them. Tesla closed at $1.35. We paid 65 cents yest
I woke up in the middle of the night to use the bathroom, looked at the futures, and thought: they have to do something. I have been watching vol for thirty years. I built the expected move framework at thinkorswim from scratch. When the S P is melting away at 3 AM, you do not need
Eleven consecutive weeks without touching the edge of the expected move. Let that sit for a second. The expected move is the range the options market prices in for any given week. It is a specific dollar number derived from implied volatility, the market's own estimate of how far it expects to move.
Being right is not enough. I hear it constantly. A trader got the direction right, the market moved exactly where they said it would, and they still lost money. They are frustrated. Confused. And usually convinced they did something wrong. They did not do anything wrong. They just learned one of the
