Mr. Toad's Wild Ride The S P expected move for today is $60. Here is what that is telling you. My power went out at 5 am this morning. Construction crew cut a cable and the whole area was down. When you lose power in Phoenix, you have until about 9 am before things get ugly.
I paid 80 cents on a Starbucks In/Out spread. This morning I sold it for $1.08. Done. 35% profit in one day. Meanwhile, oil is ripping, and the tape is whipping in every direction. None of it mattered. I knew the expected move. I knew the range. I traded it, took the money, and
I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. The market's in full volatility mode right now. Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. You just need to be positioned. I
The S P gapped up this morning. End of quarter. Some short covering. A bit of relief after five straight losing weeks. You want to celebrate that? Go ahead. I was looking at something else. Tech was not there. Apple flat. Nvidia underwater. Microsoft barely moving after getting crushed for weeks. Br
Every time a market like this starts rolling over, I get the same question. Why not just buy puts? Markets are falling. Puts make money when stocks go down. Seems obvious. It is not. When implied volatility is sitting at 50 to 60 percent, the premium you pay for any option is enormous. Implied volat
Eleven consecutive weeks inside the expected move. You see a calm market. I see a trap. Here is the number that should be keeping you up at night. The expected move is what the options market prices in as the likely weekly range for the S P 500. When the index closes inside that range at
I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. The market's in full volatility mode right now. Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. You just need to be positioned.
The weekly expected move for the S P this week is $188.88. That means the options market, before a single tweet dropped, before a single headline ran, priced in a range of roughly 6,508 on the downside to 6,695 on the upside. Write those numbers down. Because everything that happened this morning fi
$5.7 trillion expires today. Not at the open. Not a typo. $5.7 trillion in options contracts clear today. Roughly $2 trillion hit at the morning open when the SPX AM settlement fired, and the rest rolls off at today's close. Most traders spent the morning watching oil prices and reading headlines ab
