The warning signal most traders miss (it fired today)
Don Kaufman here. Markets just hit the warning signal I've been waiting for. 87% of stocks moving in the same direction this morning. That's not bullish or bearish – that's the setup for something much bigger. I talked about this literally yesterday. The sign of big moves coming? High degrees of correlation. When everything moves…
The Market Has Become a Mathematical Prison
Don Kaufman here. At 9:34 AM this morning, Tesla dropped $7 in four minutes. "That crap should not be occurring," I called it live in the TheoTrade Chatroom. Even at 60% implied volatility, the math doesn't support moves that violent, that fast. Then something fascinating happened. The market bounced. Not because of fundamentals or Oracle…
3 bearish trades while everyone chases the rally
Don Kaufman here. The sector rotation game is getting dangerous. While everyone's watching the S&P bounce around breakeven, here's what's actually happening: We've got a 50/50 advance-decline line with tech getting hammered underneath. That's not healthy market action—that's the setup for something bigger. And frankly, after 48 hours of trillion-dollar AI spending announcements, I think…
How 71 Million Option Contracts Prove We're Trading in a Bubble
Don Kaufman here. After +20 years in this business, I know which traders survive market chaos. And which ones get their heads ripped off. Yesterday, the S&P moved a whopping 30 points. And 71 million option contracts traded. Last Thursday and Friday? 84 million and 83 million respectively. Those are the three highest option volume…
84 Million Option Contracts Traded in Complete Silence
Don Kaufman here. Last Thursday, we traded over 84 million option contracts. The average is 58 million. Nothing happened in the market that day. Nobody in the industry can explain why. Let me paint the picture: Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week were some of the quietest trading sessions I've seen. If the market's…
The Win Rate Question That Makes Me See Red
Don Kaufman here Someone asked me my win rate on a webcast yesterday and I turned red. Seriously. Like, I get so pissed at that question it's almost as bad as when somebody says "quadruple witching." My blood pressure spikes and I want to reach through the screen. You know why that question makes me…