Ten Weeks Without a Breach. Here's Why That Should Make You Nervous.
Ten weeks. Ten consecutive weeks without breaching the expected move. I have been tracking this data for almost ten years. Hand drawing it. Building scanners to measure it. It started back when I was employee number thirteen at thinkorswim, building the tools that let traders read what the market was already pricing. Most traders spend…
The Fed Meets Wednesday. Here's Why I'm Already Done Thinking About It.
The Fed meets Wednesday. And I'm already done thinking about it. Not because I don't care. Because the market already told me everything I need to know — and it's sitting right there in the expected move. Here's what I mean. I've spent over two decades building frameworks around options and volatility — first at…
The Market Priced a $79 Move. It’s Delivered $30. That Gap Doesn't Disappear.
The Market Priced a $79 Move. It Delivered $30. That Gap Doesn't Disappear. Markets priced a $79 expected move in the S&P this week. They delivered $30. Most traders called it a quiet day. Here's why that math should concern you heading into next week. Markets were pricing a $79 expected move in the S&P…
We're sitting on a $224 bomb that's about to explode
We're supposed to move $224 this week. Actual move? Zero. I woke up really early this morning, pulled up the screens, and I'm looking at this thinking: what the hell is going on here? You got the spoos down 53 handles overnight. VIX heated up around 26. Everything's red across the board. But here's what's…
3 Contrarian Setups Before This Week Gets Crazy
I just wrapped my Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to get this out before the chaos really hits. Markets feel calmer today. They're not. VIX is sitting at 25. Volatility futures are still bid. And the SPX is pricing over a $100 move just for this Friday's expiration. Translation: This week is going…
24 Hours Later: What Yesterday's VIX Spike Actually Meant
Yesterday VIX hit 35 on a 5% pullback from yearly highs. Today it's back to 23. Most traders see that as "crisis averted." I see it as proof this market is completely broken. When Volatility Goes Insane Look, I've been trading for over 25 years. I stood on the floor when real crashes happened. I've…
The Market Signal Everyone Missed This Morning
Here's what I noticed this morning that everyone else missed. While traders were panicking about oil hitting $120 and overnight futures looking like death warmed over, I was watching something completely different. Something that told me this wasn't the apocalypse – it was compression about to snap. See, most people look at a morning…
Wall Street PhDs missed by 151,000 jobs (and your 401k paid for it)
You know what happened to me this morning? I'm sitting here, coffee in hand, waiting for the jobs number like every other trader on the planet. And these geniuses - and I mean GENIUSES with PhDs from fancy schools - these guys are forecasting 59,000 new jobs. Fifty-nine thousand. They put that number out there…
Oil Broke Above $80 and I'm Still Not Impressed
Oil just broke above $80 per barrel for the first time since January 2025. Everyone's acting like this validates the war premium. Like we've finally seen the market "wake up" to geopolitical risk. I'm sitting here thinking the exact opposite. Oil breaking above $80 during the most serious military conflict we've seen in decades? I've…
3 Trade Ideas That Go Against Today's "Everything's Fine" Rally
I just wrapped my the Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to share some contrarian thinking with viewers: Everyone's buying this bounce. Here are three trade ideas going the other direction. When markets gap up after geopolitical chaos and everyone breathes a sigh of relief... when "defensive" plays start rolling over just as volatility…