The 43rd time is the charm
The 43rd Time Is the Charm Peace in the Middle East was priced in again this morning. The market is finally past it. Peace got priced in this morning. That makes 43 times in two months, give or take. Today's headline was Iran will be allowed to sell oil while negotiating. Crude dropped on the…
$60 expected move on the S&P today
Mr. Toad's Wild Ride The S&P expected move for today is $60. Here is what that is telling you. My power went out at 5 am this morning. Construction crew cut a cable and the whole area was down. When you lose power in Phoenix, you have until about 9 am before things get ugly.…
When Oil Rips, Markets Slip
Oil just ripped 11% overnight and closed at $111. That single data point makes me unable to get bullish on this market by any stretch. We are heading into a three-day weekend with gasoline prices about to explode. Five and six dollar a gallon gas triggers what traders call demand destruction, and it will crush…
Fast 35% win while the world panics (+ a $1.8T problem nobody's watching)
I paid 80 cents on a Starbucks In/Out spread. This morning I sold it for $1.08. Done. 35% profit in one day. Meanwhile, oil is ripping, and the tape is whipping in every direction. None of it mattered. I knew the expected move. I knew the range. I traded it, took the money, and…
Consumer Discretionary Is a Mirage
Blake Young just exposed a major crack in the consumer discretionary rally. Tesla now accounts for 20% of the entire sector, and today's 2.6% bounce is dragging XLY higher while the actual consumer stocks are falling apart. Remove Tesla from XLY and the sector looks like Nike. Nike just dropped 14% after missing earnings by…
TSLA 120%. AVGO 100%. Same morning. Here is how.
400,000 SPX contracts traded before the cash open this morning. You think the volatility is over? Look at that number and tell me with a straight face things have quieted down. They have not. Which is exactly why I waited. Yesterday, an hour before the close, I put on two Superfly trades. Tesla and Broadcom.…
3 Trades I just broke down on Schwab
I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. The market's in full volatility mode right now. Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. You just need to be positioned. I…
The VIX Signal Nobody Noticed
Gianni Di Poce just flagged a divergence that changes the playbook for Q2. Stocks dropped to new lows this week. The VIX never confirmed the move. VIX cash and VIX futures both refused to make new highs while the market was making new lows. That disconnect is one of the most reliable signals that downside…
The April Repeat Nobody Sees
Brandon Chapman just identified a volatility signal that preceded last April's market capitulation. The same signal is flashing right now at the same time of year. Dispersion, measured by DSPX, tracks the gap between the VIX and the individual volatility of S&P 500 components. It dropped to 30 in late March 2025, right before constituent…
The biggest rallies in history happen in the middle of down markets.
In the middle of every serious down market, something happens that catches everyone off guard. A rip. Not a bounce. A rip. The kind of move where the S&P is up 140 points in a single session and every short in the market is scrambling to cover. The kind of day where people who have…