What happened to tech?
The S&P gapped up this morning. End of quarter. Some short covering. A bit of relief after five straight losing weeks. You want to celebrate that? Go ahead. I was looking at something else. Tech was not there. Apple flat. Nvidia underwater. Microsoft barely moving after getting crushed for weeks. Broadcom unchanged. Google nominal. Tesla…
The Echoes of Extreme Volatility
The S&P 500 just dropped 1.6% on the session and is now approaching a 9% decline from the all-time highs. We are on the doorstep of a full correction. But here is the problem. I don't feel the fear yet. After 30 years of trading, I know what real capitulation looks like. Volume pumps 10,000…
One stock is up this week. Everything else is bleeding. That is not safety.
Look at the tape this week. Meta down. Nvidia slipping. Google off. Financials finally rolling over after holding up for two weeks. S&P headed for its fifth straight losing week. And then there is one name. Sitting right at the top. Untouched. While everything else is getting taken out. You want to call that strength.…
You are buying puts because the market is falling. The math says you need to be right 75% of the time just to break even.
Every time a market like this starts rolling over, I get the same question. Why not just buy puts? Markets are falling. Puts make money when stocks go down. Seems obvious. It is not. When implied volatility is sitting at 50 to 60 percent, the premium you pay for any option is enormous. Implied volatility…
Tech Is Bleeding. Buy This Instead.
Blake Young just pulled three bullish setups out of a market that looks like a crime scene. Every major tech name got destroyed today. NVIDIA, AMD, Meta, Google, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft. All red. But three sectors are quietly holding the line. Energy, utilities, and healthcare are green while tech burns. Blake walked through one trade…
Google Just Did What DeepSeek Did. The $5 Trillion Server Farm Bet Just Got More Interesting.
Google just did it again. This week Google published research showing their new algorithm processes AI memory at eight times the efficiency of current methods. Eight times the output. Same hardware. I heard it and said it immediately. That is another DeepSeek moment. Here is the background for anyone who missed DeepSeek a year ago.…
Eleven Consecutive Weeks Inside the Expected Move. You See Calm. I See a Trap.
Eleven consecutive weeks inside the expected move. You see a calm market. I see a trap. Here is the number that should be keeping you up at night. The expected move is what the options market prices in as the likely weekly range for the S&P 500. When the index closes inside that range at…
The Damage Under the Surface
Everyone is staring at the geopolitical headlines. They're missing what's actually breaking. Microsoft is down 21% year to date. From its recent high, it's off more than 30%. That puts it in a full-blown bear market. The S&P 500 is barely down 6% from the highs. Traders are panicking like the world is ending. The…
Two Superfly butterflies closed this morning. Both over 100%
Yesterday I placed three Superfly trades live on camera. Tesla butterfly. Broadcom butterfly. Meta butterfly. All three structured around expected move edges. All three zero DTE, meaning options that expire the same day. This morning I closed two of them. Tesla closed at $1.35. We paid 65 cents yesterday. That is 108% in one…
Three trades I just walked through on Schwab — one's falling apart, one's about to snap, one can't catch a bid
I just got off air with Schwab, and I had to get this out immediately. The market's in full volatility mode right now. Up 300. Down 400. Back up 200. And here's the thing — in this kind of environment, you don't need to be bullish or bearish. You just need to be positioned.…