War headlines vs. $176 billion (guess which won)
You know what's wild about this whole Iran situation? Everyone's freaking out about missiles and oil spikes, and I'm sitting here watching NVIDIA jump $5 and Microsoft rip $7 higher while people are still parsing war headlines. Let me put this in perspective for you. Microsoft up seven bucks? With 7.4 billion shares outstanding, that's…
99 Reasons to Sell… and SPUZ Ain’t One
The VIX almost hit 22 today. The last time it was there, the S&P 500 was trading at 6750. Today it's at 6840. Volatility is pricing in risk that the index hasn't acknowledged yet. That disconnect is the single most important signal in the market right now. The S&P 500 has been trapped in a…
Why I'm NOT taking this 100% winner
This morning I closed three winners and refused to touch a fourth. By noon, I had a 247% gain, a 170% gain, and a 123% gain locked in, with another butterfly sitting at 100% that I won't touch. This Friday wrapped up what I'm calling "The Week of the Fly." Four out of five butterflies…
Nvidia Didn't Save The World
You know what's funny? Everyone was convinced Nvidia earnings would rescue the market yesterday. I'm watching the market right now and seeing Nvidia's down 4% at $187. Four percent! After crushing estimates and guiding higher. That tells you everything you need to know about where we really are. The Rotation That's Not Working They're…
NVIDIA Won't Save This Market
NVIDIA earnings are due out after the bell today. Everyone expects them to save the rally. I think they might actually make things worse. The S&P 500 is pinned in a 100-point range between 6850 and 6950. We've been bouncing between those levels like a pinball for weeks. Tech is deeply fractured right now. Capital…
The 3 "safe haven" trades I'm betting against (rotation madness is creating huge opportunities)
Just wrapped my Trading 360 segment on Schwab and had to break some hard truths to viewers: We're living in pure rotation insanity. When companies are closing in on $5 trillion market caps and policy means nothing... when gold becomes "the new AI trade" because Nvidia isn't performing... when Apple turns into a "safe…
Stop Looking for the Next Sector Rotation. There Isn't One.
For months, the market's been playing musical chairs. Tech. Financials. Energy. Repeat. But I'm here to tell you something nobody else is saying: The chairs are disappearing. And the music's about to stop. I spent this morning staring at the advance/decline line, and it's telling a story that should scare the hell out of you.…
The Zero DTE Trap That's About to Explode
Most traders think this range-bound market is boring. They're wrong. Dead wrong. As I write this, we just smashed through 6850 - the level I've been losing my mind over for weeks. The S&P is down 73 points and trading at 6835. This isn't theory anymore. The zero DTE explosion I've been warning about is…
Why I Won't Trade the Easiest Setups Right Now
Most traders see a perfect setup and think they have to trade it. That's exactly backwards. I'm looking at my screen right now, and Goldman Sachs is sitting right on a beautiful technical level. I mean, textbook stuff - we're about to pierce through recent lows, and if we do, this thing's got room to…
This Calm Is a Trap
The S&P 500 is trapped in the tightest volatility box I've seen in my career. Months of trade compressed into a 100 point range on a nearly $7,000 product. That's barely a 1.5% band. And the market refuses to leave it. This week was a four day session with a $144 expected move. We used…