Markets Move Beyond Expectations
The S&P finally broke out of its 100-point trading range today. We've been stuck between 6850 and 6950 for nearly seven weeks. That changed with violence this afternoon. But I'm not celebrating yet. The sector ETFs are flashing warning signs I cannot ignore. Every sector is posting moves two to three standard deviations beyond expectations.…
I Had the Quick Exit Today (And Didn't Take It)
I had a 70% probability setup. The market gave me exactly what I expected. Then handed me an easy exit for quick profit. And I just... sat there. Not because I'm bleeding out or anything dramatic. It's a one lot. I'll be fine. But it's the principle of the thing. I know better. And I…
Money Can't Find a Home
I'm watching something I haven't seen in weeks. Sector after sector is making two and three standard deviation moves with zero explanation. The S&P looks calm. It's not. What's really happening is manic rotations underneath the surface. One sector explodes higher. Another collapses. Money is on the move and it can't find a home. We're…
Why I Don't Fix Broken Trades (And Neither Should You)
I'm sitting here down 80% on two trades, and my inbox is filling up with the same question: "Don, what are you gonna do?" The answer is absolutely nothing. My XLF position is getting crushed. Silver trade looks like it's headed for the graveyard. And I'm not lifting a finger to "save" either one. Here's…
Just dropped 3 trades on Schwab Network (symbols inside)
Just got off the Schwab Network Big 3 segment. Gave them three trades - two bullish, one bearish. All based on these absolutely manic rotations we're seeing right now. The symbols: • XRT • MERCK • CAT Here's what I told them: The market's going 180 mph but can't see five feet in front of…
Retail Is King of the Hill
The futures were unchanged this morning. Know what happened at cash open? The NASDAQ ripped higher the second retail could start buying calls. I've been in this business long enough to remember when S&P futures actually told you something about the trading session ahead. Not anymore. Overnight trade has not been a good indication of…
Welcome to the People's Republic of NVIDIA
You probably saw the headlines: "Dow rallies 600 points as investors see little market risk from Venezuela action." Chevron surged 4%, energy stocks celebrated, and everyone's talking about rebuilding opportunities. Look, let me put this in perspective for you. ExxonMobil - the biggest energy player, the one everyone's saying will benefit from Venezuela - has…
New Year Same Risk
Five weeks. One hundred points. Dead center at 5900. That's the entire story of the S&P 500 since late November. Bulls are claiming we ended the year strong. The chart says we've gone absolutely nowhere. Let me say this… The longer we stay compressed, the more open interest accumulates on the same option strikes. This…
Overnight Futures Just Became Useless
What the hell happened this morning? I'm sitting here a couple hours into 2026, and I just watched something I haven't seen in years. The overnight futures were screaming - up huge, decent volume, everything pointing to a strong open. Then retail walked in at 9:30 and said "nope." Wiped out 10 handles like the…
Here's where I was right (and dead wrong) in 2025
Last trading day of 2025. Time for the brutal scorecard. Look, a year ago today, I sat in this exact spot - probably with six monitors instead of two like I had that morning because my setup was screwed up - and I told you to "get ready to rumble." And you know what? While…