The rotation has lost it's damn mind
Toll Brothers is up 11% this year. Apple is only up 1%. You're telling me Toll Brothers is better off than Apple? This is a home builder. With rates going up. Every home builder out there is like, "Yeah, with rates up like this, business sucks. Our margins absolutely suck. You should definitely not buy…
Fund Managers Are Panicking
The Nasdaq just breached the lower edge of its expected move. The Dow is pushing the upper edge of its expected move. That divergence tells you everything about what's happening right now. I'm calling it sector insanity. Fund managers are chasing anything that isn't tech. The moves reek of desperation. XLB, the materials ETF, did…
The 3 contrarian trades I just dropped on Schwab (hint: they're all bearish)
Just wrapped my segment on Schwab's Big 3 and something is seriously broken in this market. Here's what should terrify you: 70 stocks in the S&P 100 are trading higher today. Yet the S&P is down. That's not rotation. That's panic. Fund managers can't put money into the mega-cap tech that carried markets for two…
How to Read Market Rotations Before They Hit the Headlines
You know what I was going over this morning in TheoTrade Chatroom while drinking my second Monster Energy? Something that would have completely confused newer traders - but it's exactly how you spot major rotations before they become news. The S&P was selling off. Big tech getting crushed. But the advance/decline line? Getting better. Let…
I Just Made Bank on a Trade That Didn't Exist Last Week
Holy crap. I'm sitting here on this island with my old computer that keeps freezing up on me, watching the S&P futures cycle through a hundred-point range overnight, and I just executed something that's never been possible before. A Friday-to-Monday zero DTE butterfly. This didn't exist until this week. Like, literally couldn't be traded. And…
The Volatility Beast is Back (And It Looks P****d)
I got to tell you something. While everyone's celebrating the S&P hitting fresh all-time highs this week, I'm seeing warning signals that are making me want to hide under my desk and rock back and forth. The market finished "massively unchanged" after one of the wildest weeks we've had in months. But here's what nobody's…
The Volatility Beast Returns
Silver futures imploded 33% intraday today. The contract now requires $126,000 of margin for a single lot. At the same time, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high this week. That disconnect should terrify you. The S&P finished the week essentially flat despite record volume and historic swings. Volume exploded Thursday. We did…
Silver Just Became GameStop
Silver's 30-day implied volatility just broke 100%. I've been in this business a long time. I cannot name another liquid commodity product that has ever hit that level. We're looking at silver like it's a meme stock. SLV traded almost 3 million option contracts today. GLD traded another 3 million. That's crisis-level activity in the…
The Big 3 trades I just dropped on Schwab (hint: it's not what you think)
Well, the first thing I would say is I'm already past the Fed. I mean, the Fed is not that consequential. We have $10 trillion of market cap releasing earnings in the next 48 hours. That's where my focus happens to be. Just wrapped my segment on Schwab's Big 3 and dropped three trades that…
Why Silver's Record Move Should Terrify You
Silver just posted its largest single-day percentage move in modern history. If you think that's bullish, you're about to get destroyed. Look, I get it. Everyone's celebrating this moonshot like it's Christmas morning. Silver rockets from 102 to 117, then pukes back down - people were "puking their guts out in the street," and somehow…