The Slop Trader's Confession
I'm sitting here getting frustrated, waiting for my reversal, and I'm just not getting it. But you know what? I'm not gonna force anything in what is a fairly slop marketplace. That's the thing nobody tells you about professional trading - sometimes the best trade is no trade, and it pisses you off. Right now,…
3 Plays To Take Today
I Just wrapped up another Schwab TV appearance, and I had to break some hearts today. Everyone's losing their minds over Netflix and this Warner Bros merger saga. Here's what I told them - push the noise aside and look at what the chart's actually saying. Sometimes the obvious contrarian play sitting right in front…
50/50 Advanced Decline Line = This Isn't Real Selling Yet
We just hit the lower edge of expected move. And nobody's paying attention to what actually matters. Here's what I'm seeing right now: Advanced decline line sitting at 50/50... this is NOT real selling Tesla hit an all-time high THIS MORNING while Oracle craters 40% VIX didn't even care about today's move... volatility's asleep Triple…
The Selloff That Isn't a Selloff
The S&P dropped 1% today and hit the lower edge of the expected move. Social media is screaming about a market crash. But the VIX barely moved. Neither did the VVIX. Volatility is looking at this "selloff" and saying nothing's happening. The advanced decline line tells you why. We're sitting at 50-50 advancers to decliners.…
The Real Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is
I don't look at bubbles from the top down. I look at them from the bottom up. It's all the pieces of crap that got pulled higher. While everyone's losing their minds over Oracle cratering 40% from its September peaks, they're missing where the real carnage lives. Sure, AI stocks are finally getting their reality…
Why LEAPs Are a One-Way Ticket to Getting Screwed
Look, you wanna really get me going? Start talking about LEAPs. Long-term equity anticipation securities. Don't even get me started on LEAPs. I hate LEAPs. Actually, scratch that - I'm already started, so let's do this. Anybody that actually uses LEAPs doesn't know what the beep they're even doing in this business. I guarantee that.…
Most Traders Think This Is Real Selling. I Know Better.
Look, I'm gonna tell you something that might save you a fortune in the coming weeks. All this hand-wringing about Friday's selloff, all the panic about AI rotating into financials - you haven't seen real selling yet. You know how I know? Because I lived through this exact playbook 25 years ago, and what's happening…
A.I. Fear Escalates and Begins to Spread
Don here... The S&P 500 dropped 100 points today while the advance-decline line sat at 50-50. That combination should not be possible. Tech is selling off hard. Broadcom cratered after hitting all-time highs. Nvidia is stuck in the mud. Microsoft keeps taking hits. Google broke outside its expected move to the downside. Yet the…
Surviving Markets That Want You Dead
Don Kaufman here. The island tried to kill me three times before lunch today. First, driving back from the house, I got stuck behind a truck dropping crap all over the road. Then a deer decided to commit suicide by jumping in front of my car. Finally, the first iguana I've seen since arriving appeared…
The Day Micro NQ Became King
Broadcasting from St. Croix right now (82 degrees, don't hate me), and I just mentioned something during today's session that probably went right over most people's heads. The micro NASDAQ futures contract now trades more volume than any other futures product at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Including the ES...You know, that S&P 500 futures…