Why Everything You Think About Silver Is Wrong
Silver shot up 7% this morning, and I watched everyone scramble to explain why. China wants delivery. Overnight futures pressure. Global demand. Inflation hedge. All wrong. By 11:30 AM, SLV had traded over 840,000 option contracts. To put that in perspective, that's almost as much as NVIDIA (630K), Microsoft (86K), and Amazon (138K) COMBINED -…
The Bubble of Everything
S&P's been range-bound for a month, hitting all-time highs while sitting dead at 50/50 advance/decline. That's not bullish - that's a setup. Look, I get it. When you see "ALL-TIME HIGH" plastered across every financial headline, your brain wants to process that as strength. But here's what those headlines aren't telling you - we've been…
Silver's Gone Savage
SLV, the silver ETF, just traded 2.7 million option contracts in a single session. For context, that's approaching Nvidia territory. On a holiday Friday with virtually no volume anywhere else. The bigger question isn't whether this trade ends badly. It will. No market cracks the expected move five weeks in a row and stays elevated…
Silver Just Flashed a Crisis Warning
I was looking at silver volatility this morning and had to do a double-take. Silver's at $75+. Up more than 160% this year. With crisis-level volatility I haven't seen since 2011. You know what happened in 2011? Silver crashed from $43 to $26 in four months. Right before Ben Bernanke became "Helicopter Ben" and started…
I Own Zero Stocks Right Now
People keep asking what I'm buying these days. Here's the shocking thing I tell them: I don't own anything. Nothing. Not a single stock. No crypto. No mutual funds. Zero public companies in any of my accounts. And no - I'm not waiting for some perfect crash. I just think everything's priced like absolute garbage.…
Markets close, but the edge never sleeps - Happy holidays!
As we close out another year in the markets, wanted to wish everyone happy holidays - whatever you're celebrating. Christmas, Hanukkah, or just some time away from the chaos that’s called trading - the important thing is stepping back and appreciating what matters. This business never stops moving, but sometimes the best strategy is knowing…
The SLV trade everyone's getting backwards right now
I Just got off Schwab's Big 3 Show. And I had to talk about my best trades of 2025. You know how I feel about that—bad trader juju. But here's what matters for what's coming next. Tesla? Yeah, caught that ride from $300 up. Wasn't about the cars. Wasn't about the business. It was about…
Why Tom Sosnoff's Epic Fail Changed Trading Forever
Tom Sosnoff looked directly at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange executives and said the word that would haunt him forever: "Quickies." I was 24 years old, running the slideshow, and I watched one of the smartest guys in trading completely faceplant in front of the who's who of the options world. This was 2003,…
I'm Watching the One Thing That Actually Matters
Everyone's talking about this morning's rally. S&P up 0.6%, Nasdaq climbing, AI stocks getting bids. I'm looking at something completely different. While you're staring at those green numbers, I'm watching the order flow. And it's telling a very different story. 118,000 Contracts is a Crap Fest This morning's pre-market action in the S&P futures? 118,000…
Bullish Trades Cost 50% More
Bullish trades are costing 40-50% more than bearish ones in today's market. That is not a typo. I pulled up equivalent $4 wide spreads in SPY today. Same distance from the money. Same expiration. The call spread costs over a dollar more than the put spread. The reason is skew. And right now, skew is…