The Real Bubble Isn't Tech
You actually have single stock risk in owning the spiders. That's not supposed to happen. Goes against everything you've been told about diversification, but here's the math that'll mess with your head. Google and NVIDIA combined? $8 trillion in market cap. Add them up and Google's basically a $4 trillion company, NVIDIA's $4.3 trillion. What's…
The Fed Spoke. The Market Shrugged.
The Fed cut rates today. Jerome Powell talked. Journalists asked questions. The market moved 43 points on a 46-point expected move. Translation: Today was nothing. I know everyone wants to dissect Powell's every word and find hidden meaning in the Fed statement. They can analyze away. I'm looking at something far more dangerous brewing beneath…
Why I Gave My Bank Short 8 Weeks But My Fed Trade 3 Days
Don Here. Fed trades get three days. Broken banks get two months. If that sounds backwards to you, you're thinking like every other trader who blows up their account. The Fed Play: In and Out The Fed decision was priced in. Quarter-point cut, done deal. But I was betting on Powell's tone. Would he sound…
Somebody Dropped Serious Money on Chaos This Morning
It’s Fed day. And I hope you’ll join me and Garrett Baldwin from 2PM-4PM EST for our LIVE Fed coverage. Everyone is welcome, members and non-members. CLICK HERE to add the event to your calendar. You can also CLICK HERE to join the event at 2PM. But let me give you a preview of what…
Why I Closed My 30% Winner Early
Today reminded me why trading keeps you humble. I closed my Starbucks put spread for a 30% gain, and this morning everyone's telling me I'm an idiot. "You should have waited, Don. Look, it's down another 25 cents. You could have had 55% instead of 30%." Yeah, well, I didn't. And neither did you.…
Fed Cuts Won't Save You (Bond Vigilantes Are Back)
Don Kaufman here. Everyone's betting on rate cuts saving the day. Fed cuts mean cheaper borrowing, right? I'm looking at the actual futures right now – the ZQ Fed funds where people bet real money – and they're telling a completely different story. December Fed funds futures are pricing 3.7325%. Current rate's 3.8775%. That's…
Bitcoin's "No Shorts" Problem Is About to Crush Tech Stocks
Don Kaufman here. I just shot my weekend market video, and one insight jumped out that could blindside tech traders next week. I identified a critical flaw in Bitcoin's current structure that could trigger the next major tech selloff - and most traders have no idea it's coming. One of the biggest issues in crypto…
The Fed Volatility Trap That 87% of Traders Are Walking Into
Don Kaufman here. Next week's Fed meeting has an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut priced in. But that's not the real story - and most traders are about to get blindsided. In my latest weekend video breakdown, I break down why this Fed meeting isn't the non-event everyone thinks it is. To…
We Just Missed a 90% Probability Event
Don here... I have data going back to 2017 showing that in any given week, there's over a 90% probability the market hits either the upper or lower edge of its expected move. This week we didn't come close. That pent-up gamma risk doesn't disappear. It rolls straight into next week when the Fed takes…
Tech Stocks Are Now Their Own Sectors
The S&P closed up 22 handles today. Financials rallied 1.3%. Energy surged nearly 2%. None of it matters. I spotted something today that changes how we need to think about this market. The traditional concept of sector rotation is dead. We're now watching rotations within individual tech stocks that dwarf entire sectors. Tesla jumped 4%…