Stocks Back on Track or a Volatility Smackdown?
Everyone's breathing a sigh of relief after today's bounce. The S&P rallied back near where the week started. Crisis averted, right? Wrong. I need to show you something that Wall Street is completely ignoring. The market bounced hard today, yet volatility indicators refused to collapse. The VVIX still sits above 110. Volatility futures trended up…
Your Timing Always Sucks in Volatility
Don Kaufman here. My phone was ringing all week. People calling me, freaking out. "Don, what's happening? NVIDIA crashed! What do we do?" Then Friday hits and suddenly it's "Don, we're up 700 points! Should I buy the rally?" I'm sitting there looking at my screens thinking: Are you kidding me? The Dow swung 1,400…
The AI Trade Is Imploding
Don Kaufman here. So this morning the Dow was ripping 700 points. Nvidia beat earnings, Jensen Huang said Blackwell demand is "off the charts," and you know what I'm hearing all over Twitter? "The bear thesis is falling apart." Everyone's partying. Tech stocks flying. Meta up 10%. Tesla up 4%. Dogs and cats living together…
Did NVDA Help The Market Find it's Mojo?
NVIDIA just reported earnings. The S&P futures jumped 30-40 handles. Most traders think the risk just evaporated. They're dead wrong. NVIDIA's expected move was $14. The stock is only up $7-8 after hours. That underwhelming response should tell you something important about this market's appetite for risk right now. But here's what really caught my…
I Finally Let Someone Trade My Money
Don Kaufman here. I’ve been in this business 25 years. Grew up around traders at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Had family in the business - my uncle owned over 500 seats on exchanges worldwide before selling to what became UBS. Three weeks out of college, I ended up in Chicago with ramen noodles on…
3 Trades I Just Revealed on Schwab TV
Don Kaufman here. I just wrapped up Schwab's Trading 360 show. Marley and Kayden had me break down three trades live on air. Roblox. Bitcoin ETF. Netflix. Three completely different setups. Three different strategies. But here's the thing... Each one is based on the same core principle I've been hammering: we're not in a "buy…
Why I'm Short Everything and Loving It - A 27-Year Bear's Playbook
Don Kaufman here. What do you do for a living? I'm short crap. For 27 years. And I'm loving it. That's my response when strangers ask about my career. While most traders are getting chopped up in today's fourth straight losing session, I'm sitting pretty - having closed my XLE position for a 30% gain…
The Warning Signal Nobody's Talking About
Don Kaufman here. So I'm watching everyone obsess over NVIDIA earnings this week, and honestly, I get it. But there's something else happening that's got my attention. I heard the term "CDS" more in the last two months than I've heard in the previous 15 years. CDS stands for credit default swaps - basically insurance…
Volatility is Breaking. Trust Nothing.
The market closed the week exactly where it started. Yet volatility futures are screaming that the real chaos is still ahead. This is not what happens when the danger passes. The VIX sits at 20. Fine. Everyone has seen that before. But dig one layer deeper and you find something disturbing. Back month volatility futures…
Confession: I Have Zero Long-Term Stock Positions
While everyone's rushing into beaten-down AI stocks, nuclear plays, and quantum names after they got trampled the last few weeks, I'm doing something that shocked my own team in a closed-door meeting: I have zero long-term stock positions. The market rallied hard today after this morning's selloff. People are calling it "buying the dip." But…