Volatility Soars but the Market Ignores !
The market just finished a week that should have destroyed portfolios. Instead, the S&P closed higher. That's not normal. And it's definitely not safe. We just witnessed backwardation at market all-time highs. I've been watching volatility futures since 2004. I've seen every major crisis. Financial collapse, COVID, April tariffs. I've never seen backwardation like this…
The 2% Paradox
Don Kaufman here. In 20+ years of trading, I've never seen volatility futures invert this close to market peaks. Here's why that should terrify you. The S&P 500 closed at 6,616 yesterday. All-time high? 6,764. We're 2% off all-time highs with volatility futures in full backwardation. It's literally never happened before. What Nobody's Telling You…
Vol & Cockroaches Shred Bulls by 2 PM
Don Kaufman here. Listen up, because while you were all celebrating that cute little pre-market bounce this morning, I was watching the warning signs that nobody wanted to see. Holy crap, did this afternoon deliver or what? Zions down 12%. Western Alliance tanking 10%. And then Jamie Dimon drops the hammer with his "one cockroach"…
You're one little tweet away from a 200-point move in the S&P.
Don Kaufman here. You're one little tweet away from a 200-point move in the S&P. Think about that for a second. While everyone's celebrating markets being up 31 handles today, I'm watching volatility futures climb WITH the market. That doesn't happen unless something big is coming. And here's what most traders don't get: There's no…
Gold’s Ripping, Bitcoin’s Dipping, and You’re Left Holding the Bag
The S&P climbed 31 handles today. Everyone's celebrating. Meanwhile, volatility futures are climbing right alongside it. That's not supposed to happen. And it's flashing a warning most traders will ignore until it's too late. The VVIX jumped nearly 3% today with markets UP half a percent. The volatility of volatility shouldn't be rising when stocks…
3 Trades That Go Against Everything Wall Street's Telling You Preview: New Video
Don Kaufman here. Look, I don't care that the S&P bounced. I don't care that the Nasdaq had a nice little rally today. You want to know what I'm watching? Volatility. VIX refuses to contract. Volatility futures aren't behaving like they should in a "recovery." That's screaming one thing: don't get out from under…
When Markets Get Violent, I Get Excited
Don Kaufman here. While everyone's panicking about headlines, I'm practically bouncing off the walls. Why? Because we're in the exact environment where my methodology absolutely crushes it. The violence is back in the markets. Look, most traders hate volatility. They see chaos and run for cover. Me? I see mathematical opportunity dressed up as panic.…
The Last Person in the Building
Don Kaufman here. 9:30 AM Tuesday morning. I'm watching 400,000 options contracts trade before most people finish their coffee. That's not normal volume. That's pandemonium volume. And it told me something that should chill every trader to the bone: everyone who needed to hedge their positions already has. Everyone except you. If you're sitting there…
The AI Bubble's Circle of Life Trade is Getting Desperate
Don Kafuman here. Broadcom just announced a deal with OpenAI for 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure by 2029. My response? You are full of crap. I can't believe more people aren't willing to come out and say it out loud. This is an absolute facade at this point, and I'm getting infuriated watching supposedly smart…
The Beginning of the End for the S&P 500?
Don here... The market fell 2.5% today. That's not the story. Volatility exploded 30% in four hours. That's barely scratching the surface. The real danger? Volatility futures just went into backwardation for the first time in months. Let me explain what that means and why it matters. Backwardation happens when near-term volatility eclipses longer-term volatility.…