Tech rotation or tech crash? The gravity test
Don Kaufman here. We rallied from 6362 all the way back to 6422 today. Sounds good, right? Dip buyers showing up, market resilience, all that happy talk. Here's what actually happened... I've been watching this market get boxed into the same 200-point range since late June. 6250 to 6450. That's it. We've been ping-ponging inside…
Summer’s Over. Buckle Up. Volatility is Coming Back
Don Kaufman here, Summer's over. Kids are back in school, rotations are going manic, and the VVX just cracked 100 while nobody was watching. That's not random. That's institutional money quietly buying hedges before the storm hits. Here's what everyone missed while celebrating that CPI rally: The S&P hit the upper edge of its expected…
The Gamma Squeeze Nobody Saw Coming
Don Kaufman here VVIX spiked to 5.7% while Russell shot up 2% in the same session. That doesn't happen. Ever. I caught it live and my reaction was pure confusion: "What the hell is driving this thing?" Then I started connecting dots that Wall Street missed entirely. The gamma squeeze nobody saw coming. While everyone…
We're Trading on the Edge of Sanity
Don Kuafuman here. The S&P ripped nearly 50 handles today, and everyone's screaming "unprecedented rally!" But hold on - we literally just hit the upper edge of our expected move. This wasn't some miracle comeback. It was exactly what the math predicted. But here's what has me concerned... We just witnessed something I've never seen…
Why VVIX Is Up Despite Market's +45 Handle Rally (Warning Signal)
Don Kaufman here with a reality check after today's wild ride. Sure, the S&P ripped 0.7% higher and the Nasdaq gained 1%, but don't let that fool you. What I saw under the hood today was straight-up concerning. This morning's price action was absolutely vicious. I'm talking 6-7 point S&P moves inside single minutes. …
THE VOLATILITY WARMUP
Something broke today. And it broke in a very significant way. Look, I've been watching volatility futures for years. Today wasn't just another VIX spike - this was professionals rushing into panic mode. While you're staring at the obvious stuff (S&P down 100+ handles, newsflash), I'm watching the real temperature gauge. The VVIX just clipped…
The Dollar Screamed Before Powell Spoke – That’s the Tell
Today only looked boring. It wasn't. GDP came in hot, PCE ran warm, and the dollar absolutely ripped—the kind of big boy moves that don't happen unless someone knows something. While everyone's watching flat S&Ps and a sleepy VIX, the real story is burning up the currency markets. The dollar surge we got wasn’t your…
Cashing In on Crap: Watch These Sectors Closely
Retail is officially buying crap by the truckload. The S&Ps may be drifting higher right now, but don’t let that fool you: Volume’s dead, tech is stalled, and the so-called leaders? They seem to be taking the week off. They’re nowhere. The serious needle-movers right are utilities, homebuilders, healthcare — sectors nobody gave a @#$%…
Buckle Up: Big Changes Are Underway in the Markets
This market is a basketcase just after the close today. We’ve got earnings flying in from every direction: Alphabet (GOOGL) just hit, Tesla (TSLA) will have hit by the time you get this, and the S&Ps are whipping around like a kite in a hurricane. While this is happening, retail is fixated on the usual…
Strap In: This Big Volatility Signal Just Lit Up
If you're watching the S&P 500, you'd better understand this: not all of its ETFs are created equal. We always talk SPY. That’s the cap-weighted beast driven by the same seven mega-monsters: Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), etc. If one of them moves just a little, it can have a bigger impact on the…