Markets Are Under-pricing Risk (Dramatically)
As I record this, I’m watching the S&Ps drift into the cash close with all the energy and conviction of a wet sponge. This situation puts one big blip on my radar: the market is sleepwalking into risk. Yeah, we’ve had an epic run from SPX 500 to 600, but let’s not kid ourselves… Upside…
Markets Live or Die by the Tweet Right Now
We’re diving headfirst into another wild end to a holiday-shortened trading week. I’ve been pounding the table on this for days… and days now: This marketplace is no longer trading on fundamentals, it's trading on headlines. And not just any headlines - Tweets, posts, whatever we’re calling them now on “X.” This week we got…
Why Bears Are Making a Comeback
I’ll say it again, right away: The bears are making a comeback. The market hasn’t collapsed, not at all, but risk has most definitely broken the surface and shaken any kind of bull case you can think of. The SPX expected move is… jumping, to put it politely; 96.83 this week out to 126.57 next…
Bond Carnage Sparks Market Mayhem
We’ve got ourselves a little bit of market mayhem brewing… and it’s not coming from where most people are looking. Everyone’s eyes are glued to the S&Ps, but it’s actually the bond market that’s lighting the match. Yields are spiking, auctions are flopping (I mean, the most recent Treasury auction was terrible), and that is…
Upside Exuberance: From Gamma Squeezes to a Two-Sigma Move
We are closing out the week with some fireworks with markets clocking a two-sigma move to the upside, leaving the expected move in the dust. We were pricing in a 130-handle move in the SPX and got 300. That’s not a rally so much as a mispricing meltdown. It’s upside volatility. This is happening at…
Don’t Believe This Calm - It’s All Squeezes and Teases
This market feels calm… and that should scare you. If you’ve been with us for a while, you know that a quiet tape like this often sets the stage for outsized moves, like Monday’s upside explosion. Now, we’re sitting well outside the expected move in the SPX. Probability suggests we’re due for a pullback -…
The Market’s Waiting… and Waiting… and Waiting for Tariff Relief
Jerome Powell and the Fed gave us nothing this week - they gave nothing because they know nothing. That left markets with no catalysts; nothing to rally on, nothing to tank on, either. What that looks like is a calm market, but this market isn’t calm… …it’s coiling up. Like a trap. This stagnant S&P…
The FED Says “Wait and See” - Here’s What I Think
Markets feel broken and disconnected - they have for a long time now. Today just put a fine point on it. The Fed came, they saw… they did absolutely nothing. No rate cut, no real direction, just wait and see. Yet despite that, while J-Po was spinning his nothingburger, the S&P 500s floated higher with…
The Rally Is Real… But Don’t Get Comfortable
If you’ve been with me for more than two-and-a-half minutes, you’ll know I’m the first one to call BS on a rally I think doesn’t have what it takes, that I’m sure will trap unwary traders and clean ‘em out. This rally happens to be the real thing. After a really long stretch, volatility has…
A Bad Data Deluge Swamped Markets - And More Is Coming
The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 - the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite. One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession. The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there…