Gold Is Rarely Wrong
Don Kaufman here. If you own the S&P 500 in any way, shape, or form – whether individual stocks, a Vanguard 500 in your 401k, whatever – I'm really nervous for you right now. And it's not because of the government shutdown that nobody cares about. It's because I'm looking at gold. Here's the thing…
This Gold Move Scares Me
Gold just went parabolic while the dollar stayed flat. That shouldn't be possible. It's making me nervous. Everyone's focused on the government shutdown...they're watching Tesla explode higher on 2.5 million option contracts…they're celebrating the S&P grinding toward new highs. Meanwhile, gold is screaming something completely different. We're talking about a move from $3,400 to $3,900…
My 35-Cent Bet on SPX Weakness
Don Kaufman here. I was staring at two butterflies this morning and the market wanted to charge me $1.15 for a call butterfly that I could get for 35 cents on the put side. Same damn trade. This is exactly why most traders lose money - they don't understand how skew is robbing them blind.…
When Markets Don't Trust Themselves
Don Kaufman here. I woke up this morning and the S&Ps were up 40 points. By the time I hopped on my live trading room session, they were already cut that in half. But here's what's got me perplexed - and this is the signal everyone's missing. The Market That Doesn't Trust Itself When you're…
Sell the Rips or Buy the Dips?
Don here... We just witnessed something that hasn't happened in weeks... And it's about to flip this entire market on its head. Two-sided trading is officially back. While everyone was focused on the PCE data this morning, I spotted the critical signal that changes everything. We hit 90 products advancing while the market simultaneously dropped…
The warning signal most traders miss (it fired today)
Don Kaufman here. Markets just hit the warning signal I've been waiting for. 87% of stocks moving in the same direction this morning. That's not bullish or bearish – that's the setup for something much bigger. I talked about this literally yesterday. The sign of big moves coming? High degrees of correlation. When everything moves…
The Market Has Become a Mathematical Prison
Don Kaufman here. At 9:34 AM this morning, Tesla dropped $7 in four minutes. "That crap should not be occurring," I called it live in the TheoTrade Chatroom. Even at 60% implied volatility, the math doesn't support moves that violent, that fast. Then something fascinating happened. The market bounced. Not because of fundamentals or Oracle…
I’ve Got 5 Trillion Problems But My Short Ain’t One
Don here... Everyone's freaking out over two tiny down days while completely missing the BIGGEST risk buildup in market history. THE SPX and SPY just traded 12 million option contracts today. That's nearly 20% of the entire market's daily volume in just two products. Here's what has me on high alert: SPX moved 4 million…
3 bearish trades while everyone chases the rally
Don Kaufman here. The sector rotation game is getting dangerous. While everyone's watching the S&P bounce around breakeven, here's what's actually happening: We've got a 50/50 advance-decline line with tech getting hammered underneath. That's not healthy market action—that's the setup for something bigger. And frankly, after 48 hours of trillion-dollar AI spending announcements, I think…
How 71 Million Option Contracts Prove We're Trading in a Bubble
Don Kaufman here. After +20 years in this business, I know which traders survive market chaos. And which ones get their heads ripped off. Yesterday, the S&P moved a whopping 30 points. And 71 million option contracts traded. Last Thursday and Friday? 84 million and 83 million respectively. Those are the three highest option volume…