The Fed’s Done - Now the Markets Face Volatility
Mark my words: Once J-Po leaves the stage, there’s nothing left but chop. Volatility is coming back in a big way. Powell is basically saying the administration will drive more uncertainty, and that stagflation is a possibility. The market’s not going to take that well. They’re already not taking it well - we got a…
Fade the Rip: The Market Says There’s More Trouble Coming
We’ve been waiting for it! We’re getting something that looks like a rebound… but isn’t really. I’ll be “that guy”: Fade the rip. If you don’t know what that means, well, you will by the time tonight’s video’s done. A lot of people out there will be all over this “rebound,” but they’re making a…
This Market Just Can’t Get Up from the Mat
The market tried for a rally off today’s CPI report, and we were up a little ahead of the close, but there’s no getting around it: Every bounce we’ve seen today (and stocks actually started rising in the pre-market) has been sold like it’s goin’ out of style. Every bounce. This brings us to volatility.…
Was That The Bottom... Or Just The Beginning Of The Abyss?
The market action lately has been wild enough to make your head spin. While some are calling a bottom, my analysis of the monthly charts tells a different story - one that suggests this selloff could just be getting started. Here's what's keeping me up at night: How the "selective selling" we're seeing now could…
Selling Rallies Is the Path to Profits Here
We got a 1.5%-ish rally this afternoon. After a sloppy start in the morning, by about 1:45 PM or so, stocks were going up with no looking back. Not that it was all gravy; some of the biggest stocks out there are down big-time for the past five days. In fact, I’ve got to be…
Wild Swings and Dark Signals in an Edgy Market
The other day I showed everyone just how on-edge the markets really are. It’s very dicey, at least for buy-and-hold bulls. (For us, it’s dynamite; we made 254% on our SPX butterfly) Now, after the NASDAQ tanked yesterday, you might be thinking, “Hey, we’ve had a selloff. The worst is over. That’s the bottom.” And…
The Market’s Right on the Edge of the Abyss
I’ve been pounding the table about the volatility “box” stocks have been pinballing around since the 2024 election. The “box” is just a 200-point range, basically. It’s between two critical levels at 5900 on the lower end and 6100 on the upper. We’ve poked our heads above that 6100 level about five times, including one…
Welcome Back to the Volatility Box
What a day… We had about $2.7 trillion worth of monthly options expire today - they’re off the books. For all that, we’re back in the box. We’re down around 1.7% on the S&P 500, which isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things… because we’re still in the box. We got to…
Prepare for a Massive Gamma Squeeze (It’s Coming)
Right out of the gate today we hit the upper edge of the SPX 97-point expected move… and stopped. The VIX is sloshing around on the floor, below 15 and falling. For the week, we’re “massively unchanged” on very low volume. For weeks on end we’ve been trading in more or less a 200-point range,…
The Big Vulnerability in This "Invincible" Market
Headline risk… geopolitical chaos… a shakeup of the international order… trade war… radical surgery for the federal government… inflation… There’s a lot going on right now, but the markets have barely budged. As of today, we’re still well inside the weekly expected move - more on that in a few. That’s led a lot of…