CPI Is About to Rock This “High Volatility, Tight Range” Market
The market’s been sticking traders with a weird, and, sure, let’s call it frustrating, conundrum for the better part of three weeks now. It goes something like this… Stocks are bouncing around in a tight 100-point(ish) range… but volatility has been really high, with the VIX pegged above 20 most of the time. It’s like…
Risk Is Building with Markets Trapped in a Range
The S&P 500 moved higher today… to finish out the week basically unchanged! It’s stuck right now, but not for long. I talked this morning about a buildup in gamma risk that raises serious questions about how to get in position for the weekend - more on that in a second. The S&P is stuck,…
Today Was Quiet… But Trading’s About to Get Good
The S&P 500 has been practically asleep, but I’m looking for volatility to pick up in a big way - starting with everyone’s favorite retail stocks. This is what you need to know…
It’s Been a Slow Week… But Get Ready for Volatility (Helmets On!)
I hope everyone had fun snoozing through this week’s slop-tastic sessions. Hope everyone got their beauty sleep… …because it’s about to get wild in this market. If you know where to look (and I’ll show you) you can see the signs of imminent volatility. On Wednesday, I showed you how sector rotation and an increase…
Defensive Posture: Dump Financials, Stock Up on Utilities and Tech
If you didn’t know any better, looking at the market this afternoon, you’d think “Hm. Quiet. No volume.” And you’d be right… but this market is going to wake up. How do I know? You can tell a lot by following the flow of cash out of one sector and into another. Go figure. Right…
The Fed Just Put All the Bulls on Notice
Triple-witching - the September event is coming hot on the heels of our 50bp rate cut. Trillions in notional value in derivatives expired today. If you were expecting fireworks… sorry, you didn’t really get them. Normally a triple-witching afternoon sees a massive jolt of volatility, but we didn’t see that today even around an hour…
The Fed Fumbles… And Hands Us Huge Opportunities
The Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points today… while saying they intended to run a “rather restrictive policy.” The reaction was fairly muted - a lot of this has been baked in. I think a cut like this is going to keep the market on edge for the foreseeable future. That’s because, in…
The Calm Before the FED
The markets are all over the place, and with the Fed decision looming, things are heating up. 🔥 Sectors are driving the action, but what happens if we get a 25 bps rate cut? It’s not just the cut that matters — the Fed’s guidance will be crucial for the next move. We’ve got volatility…
Volatility Is Alive and Well and…
confirmation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. So of course, stocks took off like a shot - just kidding. They didn’t. They tanked steadily until just before lunchtime… then they took off in a 2% reversal rally. That sounds great, but there’s more going on here than meets the eye. I’ll…
The Market Just Got Serious - Here’s What to Do
The S&P 500 has taken a big downside hit, lower by almost 1.7% toward the close. We saw an intense concentration of liquidity and volume - more on that in a few. It’s clear that a lot of deadwood has been cleared out. If you weren’t prepared for this, you’re in serious trouble. (I’m sure…