Traders Are Delusional If They Think This Bad Jobs Report Is Any Good
No matter how you slice it, we’ve had an extraordinarily volatile week; stocks were reeling like so many drunks from data to the Fed to earnings to data. Apple, a juggernaut of the S&P 500, took off on an earnings miss yesterday because, “Hey - no worries, $110 billion in buybacks are coming.” (If all…
Fed Day Is Over…But the Fallout Isn’t
The markets rallied strongly after the Fed non-announcement today (an 80-handle move at one point)... only to fall right out of bed in the last 30 minutes or so of trading. We saw a really dramatic, volatile reversal. Volatility futures actually fell as Powell was talking but then picked back up again later in the…
I Don't Trust This Rally a Bit - You Shouldn't Either
SPY ripped around 53 bucks to the upside before the close… but I don’t feel great about it. I’d never hate on a good rally, but this ain’t that. That might change next week, but we’ll deal with that when we come to it. My unease with this upswing has got nothing to do…
That Volatility Beast I Mentioned? It's Not Done with You
Last week I warned everyone that volatility was going to go on a rampage. And that’s exactly what it did. And here’s the thing: It’s not over, not by a long shot. The rally sputtered and nearly died today. By the close it had made up some ground to end up… “massively unchanged.” But in…
The Volatility Animal Is Waking Up
Last week, I went out and said the market was on the “edge of the abyss” of volatility. Plenty of people probably thought I was freaking out - after all, plenty of tech stocks were hitting highs. But I said at the time that tech had taken no damage. I said tech needs to take…
Magnificent Tech Is on the Edge of the Abyss
The market is volatile right now, no doubt, but it could turn into an absolute mess over the next couple of trading sessions. What’s the difference between “volatile” and a “mess?” Well… The activity we’re seeing right now is disconnected, jumbled - too fast. Every little data point, every offhand comment from a Fedhead, every…
The Market Just Got Serious - Here’s What to Do About It
Hope you enjoyed all the soapy froth, blowout earnings, and all-time highs we’ve seen over the past few months… …’cos it’s very close to being over with. The Warm, Fuzzy LoveFest of 2024 is hanging by a thread. This market, beneath the surface, has been a powder keg for the past three weeks or so.…
Inflation Is Back, Risk Is High… And Interest Rates Could Still Go Higher
CPI came screaming in this morning at 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%. That’s hot in anyone’s book - and you could almost hear the market cry as its hopes of a summer rate cut up and died. The S&P 500 started weak and got weaker along the way to a 0.95% loss for the day.…
Volatility Rumbles as a Market Reversal Looms
We just lived through the most volatile week this year - and a lot of people following along with my picks got the chance to clean up. (More on that in a second.) And I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the turbulence…not by a longshot. Tonight we’re going to look at what we…
Markets Are at All-Time Highs...But the Economy Is Slipping
Dozens of the biggest stocks on the market are at or near their all-time highs. Valuations are still at nosebleed levels. So why don’t I feel great? Because unlike the market, where hopium and craziness can take you really, really far, severe cracks are starting to show in the U.S. economy… where hopium and craziness…