When "Different" Ends Up the Same Way
Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft - together they’re worth more than $10 trillion-with-a-”T.” They account for a bit less than a quarter of the S&P 500 by weight. Incidentally, it’s been more than 50 years since the S&P 500’s top stocks were this concentrated. Well, they’re in real trouble now. All four of those mega-caps…
The Market Is Cracking - Volatility and Bearishness Are Surging
The mainstream narrative today was, “Oh, look - a bounceback rally after a big down day.” But look just a little deeper, pull on the threads, and you find the situation is a lot more alarming than I think a lot of people realize right now. Apple, for one, did not advance today. Not only…
Weekly Wrap: Welcome to the Great Tech Squeeze of 2024
You know it as “Nvidia, the Wall Street darling that for some reason is worth $1.7 trillion.” I know it as “Nvidia: The most dangerous stock in the S&P 500 right now.” NVDA’s valuation is so far out of whack, so divorced from reality that it has become a threat and a symbol of what’s…
Why Markets Don't Care About Risk Right Now
Stocks just keep going up. The S&P 500 is knocking at the psychologically important 5,000 level - an all-time high and a nice, big round number. So why do I feel uneasy? I think the market is really just fixated on the prospect of upside and is turning a blind eye to some significant risks…
Why Bond Selling Could Break This Market
Virtually all week, we saw a surge in bonds - the classic signal of a “flight to safety” and a warning that all hell’s about to break loose in stocks. We saw the entire market fixate on tech and its stellar earnings - tech is the market right now. Jobs numbers sparked an explosion in…
Forget AMZN, Forget META, Forget the Fed - Here’s What’s Will Rock This Market
There are some immense bond trades underway right now. That’s because the smart money is bailing out of the S&P 500 and fleeing tech. These moves scream “defense!” and we’d be wise to pay close attention. Duck and cover - money is running scared…
Polarized Market Movements Wreak Havoc
—Options driving manic intraday movement —head in the game; moves are fast and unrelenting —dollar strength and foreign bond demand —Tesla not so magnificent after all —Tech is vulnerable… and there were 6 —Enter the Fed SPX Expected Move - -last week - 58.27 (5-day expected move) -next week - 70.87 (5-day expected move)
Markets Rip with a Feverish Pitch!
-tech comes roaring back -NVDA is the market -call buyers gone wild, skew inverts -Fed funds go 50:50 in March SPX Expected Move - -last week - 55.12 (4-day expected move) -next week - 58.27 (5-day expected move)
Will Volatility Return with a Vengeance?
-extreme call buying is driving orderflow -CPI and Fed Fund Probabilities -Big banks, questionable earnings -will markets get a dose of reality SPX Expected Move - -last week - 60.67 (5-day expected move) -next week - 54.02 (4-day expected move)
When Good Market News Goes Bad
—volatility starved animals beware —economic data challenges rate cut logic —bonds are fading —FED speak is going to get dangerous —AAPL slippage —lack of correlation is disconcerting SPX Expected Move -- --last week -- 51.73 (4-day expected move) --next week-- 60.67 (5-day expected move)