The Tech Divergence Has Grown to Epic Proportions - Here’s What to Do About It
Now this was a trading session! Today had it all - the Fed, economic data, volume… I’ve been at this for more than 25 years, and I have never seen the kind of trading in individual products that we’ve seen today. Let that sink in for a second. The markets exploded on cooler inflation numbers…
The “Great Nvidia Squeeze” Is Almost Dead
NVDA’s 10-for-1 stock split is in motion - traders who held as share at the close yesterday will get nine additional shares at the close today, and come Monday morning, the price will be split-adjusted down from $1200 to $120 or so. But that’s not the big story here, not by a longshot. The gamma…
Nvidia Is the Single Largest Stock Risk in Market History - Here’s How to Play It
A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you’re talking serious money. On the surface, Nvidia is a massive success story… A semiconductor stock few had even heard of ten years ago takes the market by storm and rides the AI boom to the Trillion-Dollar Clubhouse. It has a $3.01 trillion market…
These Rotations and Divergences Scream “Volatility Ahead!”
I’m traveling today, back to the island, with a loooong layover in Miami. Fitting after a week like this. IN/OUT just closed out its eighth winner, but the markets closed out a short week-long losing streak that somehow managed to feel even longer. Of course, it caps a month of 4% to 6% gains for…
At This Point, Good Data Could Be Atrocious for Markets
There’s an old (but usually true) cliche for times like we’re in now: “Bad news is good news,” meaning, terrible economic news is great for the markets, because it could lead to looser policy at the Fed. Well, if that’s true… you don’t have to be Warren Buffett to figure out what good data could…
The Fed Just Went Nuclear and the Market’s in Denial
While everyone and their mother was waiting for Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, the Fed Open Markets Committee meeting minutes hit the street. Oooh boy… The report wasn’t good at all. Seems plenty of folks at the central bank are feeling really hawkish. Forget about that weak “higher for longer” song ‘n dance we usually get… …because…
What Comes Next Could Define Markets for Years
--nothing but CPI --NVDA a defining moment for the AI trade --gold and silver --bond markets --cocktail for volatility --do not be a vol starved animal SPX Expected Move -- --last week -- 67.29 (5--day expected move) --next week-- (5--day expected move)
Markets Rip Higher, But Inflation Is Far from Dead
The SPX was up around $58 just before the close today. The market loved the CPI numbers (I don’t see what there is to love about them; they came in as expected but 3.4% is still high) and took us right to the upper edge of the expected move. Now, if you remember, last week…
If You Thought Markets Sucked This Week… You’re Right!
If you love it when stocks don’t move and nothing makes sense, you probably had a blast this week… For everyone else, yours truly included, the markets were just… terrible. I mean, they sucked. Or worse. As a trader, you want to see two-sided trades, action. We did not get that. Instead we’re straight up,…
The Expected Move Is Keeping Markets Here… But Volatility Lurks
A market like this, where stocks move a little higher and then gently drift lower, can be really deceptive. There’s not much you can read into a market that’s down… a point. Financials are down a little, tech is all over the place and news-driven, energy is massively unchanged… The advance/decline line is… slop-tastic. It’d…