Ten Weeks Without a Breach. Here's Why That Should Make You Nervous.
Ten weeks. Ten consecutive weeks without breaching the expected move. I have been tracking this data for almost ten years. Hand drawing it. Building scanners to measure it. It started back when I was employee number thirteen at thinkorswim, building the tools that let traders read what the market was already pricing. Most traders spend…
Salesforce Spent $25 Billion Buying Back Stock. Three Days Later, Nobody Knows What to Think.
Salesforce just spent twenty-five billion dollars buying back its own stock. Three trading sessions later, the stock is almost exactly where it started. Up 3% on the announcement. Down 3.24% the next day. Up 2.6% today. That chop — on the largest buyback in company history — is the story. Let me tell you why.…
The Fed Meets Wednesday. Here's Why I'm Already Done Thinking About It.
The Fed meets Wednesday. And I'm already done thinking about it. Not because I don't care. Because the market already told me everything I need to know — and it's sitting right there in the expected move. Here's what I mean. I've spent over two decades building frameworks around options and volatility — first at…
No Panic Yet… But the Abyss Looms.
The S&P 500 is down 5% from its highs. That sounds dramatic until you realize we haven't seen a single day of real panic selling. Friday's advance decline line came in at fifty-fifty. You don't capitulate until you correlate, and we are nowhere close. Oil just closed at its highs, reaching for $100 a barrel.…
Big Tech Is Flat While the Market Breaks Down. That's Not Strength. That's Distribution.
NVIDIA, Google, Microsoft, Broadcom. All flat. All unmoved. The S&P grinding toward November closing lows and the biggest names in tech acting like nothing was happening. That's not strength. That's distribution. The Leaders Who Aren't Leading The S&P spent the morning grinding around 6700 — dangerous territory if you know what to look for.…
The Market Priced a $79 Move. It’s Delivered $30. That Gap Doesn't Disappear.
The Market Priced a $79 Move. It Delivered $30. That Gap Doesn't Disappear. Markets priced a $79 expected move in the S&P this week. They delivered $30. Most traders called it a quiet day. Here's why that math should concern you heading into next week. Markets were pricing a $79 expected move in the S&P…
The private credit crisis that's about to crush tech (and nobody sees it coming)
Deutsche Bank hit new lows this morning. BlackRock locked out redemptions on their private credit funds. Morgan Stanley just did the same thing. And I'm sitting here thinking: does anybody understand what this means for tech? Let me connect some dots for you. Who do you think is financing all these AI data centers? "Here's…
We're sitting on a $224 bomb that's about to explode
We're supposed to move $224 this week. Actual move? Zero. I woke up really early this morning, pulled up the screens, and I'm looking at this thinking: what the hell is going on here? You got the spoos down 53 handles overnight. VIX heated up around 26. Everything's red across the board. But here's what's…
Big Boy Risk Is Lurking
The S&P 500 is only down 13 points on the session. In the context of what we've seen lately, that's massively unchanged. Do not let your guard down. The options market is pricing in a $224 expected move on the week. The actual move so far is 30 points. The week opened at 6,740 and…
3 Contrarian Setups Before This Week Gets Crazy
I just wrapped my Big 3 segment on Schwab and had to get this out before the chaos really hits. Markets feel calmer today. They're not. VIX is sitting at 25. Volatility futures are still bid. And the SPX is pricing over a $100 move just for this Friday's expiration. Translation: This week is going…