Volatility Confirms Fears of an Impending Sell-Off
Tomorrow is a crucial trading day. We have been talking about the VVIX at 100 being a measure of risk in the market. Today we ended right at 100. Here's our plan for tomorrow...
Fed Minutes Betray Clueless Policymakers
Why do we even bother sharing the Fed meeting minutes? Do you ever wonder that? They didn’t hike rates. That’s it. Now you’re going to scour the tea leaves (the ones they report) for clues about November and December? Give us a break. They aren’t going to hike in November around an election. That would…
Nervousness Lingers Over Fed Minutes Amid Thai Turmoil, Yuan Weakening
So Wednesday is interesting thus far. There’s trouble in Thailand where the aging king combined with generalized angst about the prospects for another taper tantrum have thrown the baht for a decisive loop: Meanwhile, Thai stocks fell as much as 6% and are down more than 7% since last week. “The only thing that has…
“These Dudes Will Never Identify An Asset Bubble - At Least Before The Event!”
The title is from SocGen’s incorrigible “permabear” Albert Edwards who is out with an interesting note on the current state of corporate balance sheets (among other things). Here’s one chart that stuck out to us: (Chart: SocGen) What that shows is that the despite the hunt for yield that’s driven interest rates into the ground,…
A Quiet Sell-Off has Commenced
A quiet sell off today on a week filled with Holidays. Yesterday was Columbus Day and tomorrow is Yom Kippur which means we could see movement without conviction. These are the levels that we have been watching for 30 days and they continue to hold...
Earnings Season Starts With A Dud, Stocks Drop
Easy come, easy go when it comes to this week’s gains in stocks and oil. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans may have ruined it for everyone in Sydney overnight where he made the following comments in a speech: “A December move could be fine -- it depends on the ultimate strategy of whether or not…
Assessing Market Risk As Correlations Rise, Valuations Become More Stretched
Leave it to Goldman to come out cautious on equities and overweight cash on a day when stocks rally and turn positive for the month and the Nasdaq 100 hits an all-time record high. Here’s what the bank had to say on Friday: “We stay defensive in our asset allocation and keep our Overweight in…
Get Ready for Expansion
The market consolidation won't last long. Today was a low volume up day thanks to Columbus Day which is a bank holiday. With the bond market closed we aren't going to be able to get a good read on which way stocks will break. Here's what to watch...
Trump Comments, Absurd Debate, Empty Oil Freeze Promises Lift Stocks
Despite Donald Trump’s supposedly “better” (and that’s a relative term) performance in last night’s debate, the market is pretty clearly confident that the leaked tape of the billionaire’s “locker room talk” was the death knell for his campaign as stocks rallied in Europe and jumped triple digits out of the gate on Wall Street. There’s…
Election Trades... A Vote for Volatility
In this weekend's video we are going to the discuss how the presidential race relates to the markets. How much risk is priced in and what the markets are saying about the race. Also, a special election day announcement is included...