Taking Profits in XLE
In tonight's video we will review our trade including how we hit our 55% profit target in our XLE In Out Spreads trade. Also, let's revisit the election spread. This is something TheoTraders have been keeping a close eye on and for the first time today has widened. Let's review what this means for the…
Speculating On Future Fed Policy
My edge when it comes to speculating on future monetary policy is that I remain objective when making projections. The so called ‘Fed skeptics’ have been closer to projecting actual Fed policy than mainstream investment bankers and commentators. The Fed itself has also had a terrible track record at predicting its own policies. This is…
Fed Caught Between A Rock & A Hard Place
The long term consequences of the Fed’s policy mistakes are obvious. Low interest rates created the tech and real estate bubbles, so having interest rates lower for longer is going to cause more damage. We are already seeing these effects bear fruit as the S&P 500’s median price to sales ratio is the highest ever.…
Forecasting on Volatility, Not Direction
It's the tech heavyweights turn for earnings reports. Now is not the time to pick direction, but base your forecasting on volatility. Here's what to expect...
The Election Signals Tough Roads Ahead
The market is ignoring the elephant in the room. In terms of the presidential race, most voters and economists think both presidents would be a bad choice. It will be tough for either candidate to get anything passed through Congress because he/she will not have a mandate. A mandate is when the president gets his…
Netflix: Tech Boom 2.0
It is always important to invest with the macroeconomic back drop in mind. However, this concept is actually hurting investors this year. In fact, not only is economic weakness not being priced into the market, but individual earnings reports aren’t mattering either. Capitalism cannot work when there is no cost of capital. Investors begin…
The Ways to Play AAPL Earnings
In tonight's video newsletter we are going to zero in on AAPL which has earnings after the close tomorrow. There's a lot of ways to play AAPL earnings so let's first look at what to avoid. We have already received emails from traders who have not taken our advice and have been burned already in…
When Will The Monetary Madness End?
The U.S. economy is in an interesting situation. The manufacturing economy started weakening in 2014. Industrial production has declined for 13 straight months which is the longest streak outside of a recession ever. Earnings peaked in 2015 and have been declining ever since. Both the Russell 2000 and the NYSE peaked in 2015. All…
Earnings Moves Are Beyond Market Expectations
Volatility remains extraordinarily low thanks to the excess liquidity in the markets. This is not a premium sellers market and if you try to sell premium around earnings you will get burned. Across the board earnings announcements have jolted stocks passed their expected moves crushing premium sellers. Watch the video to learn about what you…
MSFT All-Time Highs, GE On Deck
MSFT beats earnings expectations and sends MSFT up 5% in after hours. However, investors still don't seem like they want to buy new highs with the risks on the horizon. If that remains true then here's the only path the markets can take...