Trump Is Status Quo
As I said in my last article, I was wrong about the market’s reaction to Trump winning. This wasn’t a Brexit market reaction. This was a reaction like we’ve seen to jobs reports in the past. The market goes up whether there is a good or bad report. In this case, the market would find…
An Epic Trading Day
An Epic Trading Session Leads to a Massive Market Bifurcation. The only thing more shocking than the election results was the market reaction to those results. After going limit down over night in the S&P Futures the market rallies today. Did everyone have the market's reaction to a Trump win wrong or is the first…
President-Elect Trump Acceptance Speech
Against the odds and what most analysts predicted, President-Elect Trump pulled off a convincing victory in the Electoral College where he may reach 300 votes. He outperformed and won in some states which were thought to be blue: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and likely Michigan. He won the swing states he needed to win: Florida, North Carolina,…
Still Expecting a Volatile Evening
The expected move across all the major indexes are expecting a volatile evening. This move will most likely happen over night in the Futures market. As the election wraps up let us all remember one thing in tonight's video... We are opening up our trading room for 2 days - November 8th and 9th. If…
Diversification Against Bubbles
When I say diversification against bubbles, I would argue the current state of the markets makes now the most difficult time to invest in many decades. I get asked what to invest in constantly by friends and family. While this would appear normal, the reason why I get asked this question is not. I make…
Election Front and Center
In my previous article I mentioned that betting on the market based on the election result is a bad idea because there's a lot of uncertainty. I’m still perplexed as to why the market rallied so much today when nothing is certain. If you did know who was going to win, I would only make…
FBI Rally or Dead Cat Bounce?
The 9 day losing streak was abruptly ended by the FBI rally last night. The move we saw today was mostly made overnight as futures opened up 25 points and continued the rally until the close of the cash session today. All of the loses over the last 9 days have been make back. If…
Earnings Recovery Not In Clinton’s Emails
The reason why I didn’t get caught up completely in the 9 day sell-off was because the market was falling for the wrong reasons. Based on my work, I think earnings won’t recover in 2017 and the economy will continue weakening. The market has been ignoring weak earnings and weak economic growth for a few…
Uncertainty Prevails With Volatility At Extremes
After 9 down days don't get fooled into thinking that the 10th day needs to be an up day in terms of volatility. There is still a 50/50 chance that Monday could be an up day or down day. What you need to pay attention to more is the risk you have exposed. In this…
Is Wage Growth Strong?
First, before I get into wage growth, I would like to correct an error I made in a previous article where I said the 8 day losing streak in the S&P 500 was tied for the longest ever. Today’s down day is the 9th straight which is the longest streak since 1980. The longest losing…