Italy - Risk On
The Italian election next week will be the beginning of the end of the European Union. Without Italy’s support the entire system breaks down. This will likely cause volatility in the market which will be tough for central banks to quell. The political tremors from Greece in 2012 will be realized in the next few…
If Long be Nimble, If Short Duration Over Direction!
Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. In this weekend edition we are going to dive into the many inflection points across the markets. The dollar index is standing at a 14 year high yet no one is talking about what this means for the S&P 500 companies who get half of their revenue from overseas.…
Brexit - Part Three
While stocks, real estate, and sovereign debt may be in bubbles, there is a bigger bubble than them all. That bubble is the political bubble. Unlike other bubbles, there is no way to measure the feelings of citizens. The polls tend to underrepresent populist support much like analysts over represent earnings expectations. There’s no PE…
Faith Isn't a Strategy
When I refer to investors being optimistic, I am referring to multiple expansion. If earnings are rising then stocks going up is not evidence of optimism; it is an example of sound judgement. The optimism we’re seeing in this market is blind. It ignores any negative factor and only focusses on the positives. It will…
Unwarranted Optimism
The optimism in the market is unwarranted and unfounded. It’s amazing how the mainstream media concluded Trump would bad for the economy and then investors changed their minds and bought stocks after he won. The Fed’s bubble stock market hasn’t dealt with reality this entire recovery, so it’s not a big shock. In fact, Trump’s…
Stair-Stepping Past 2200
It's official the S&P has hit a new high today and once again everyone in the financial news media got it wrong. Here's what you can look forward to in this market...
Is David Malpass Making Policy Errors?
Whenever a Trump advisor speaks to a media outlet, I am quick to analyze every detail because I am still trying to wrap my head around what a Trump presidency will mean in terms of policy. Campaign slogans need to be translated into actions. How this translation occurs depends on who Trump picks as his…
This Is What to Short
This is what to short in today's market. In an overblown market there are lots of shorting opportunities. Here is the best shorting opportunity in the market today...
Social Media Bias
Last week I discussed the future of social media from a neutral perspective. In this article I will give more of an opinionated stance which looks at the recent trends in elections and media to see which direction the industry is going in. Social media firms should not take an opinionated, editorial stance on what…
Opportunity Knocks in Volatile Markets
Volatility once again has been smashed down to near record lows. In this weekend's video let's review the different opportunities in the volatility markets and which volatility products to avoid...