QE Unwind Not Happening
The Fed’s balance sheet needs to be studied extensively because of the unique policies the Fed has put in place in the past few years. The difference between what’s likely to happen and what’s expected to happen is getting larger as we approach Trump’s presidency. It’s going to be interesting to see when this difference…
Volatility Complacency
Volatility closed below the bollinger bands for the 2nd time in the last 2 years signaling once again the extreme complacency in the market. Let's review what this could mean for the various sectors... Butterfly's Guide to Weekly Returns Class https://archive.theotrade.com/fly/
Fed Mistakes Why Productivity Is Declining
Next week the Fed will make a decision on whether to hike rates or keep them steady. Since the last time I wrote about this topic, the chance of a rate hike has fallen from 100% to 92.7%. The idea that the chance of a rate hike is 100% was over the top given the…
Banks In Worse Shape With “No” Winning
The reason why I said the disenfranchised Italian citizens were voting against their own short term interests is because the banks will be in worse shape than they otherwise would be if the reforms had passed. The health of the banking system reflects the health of the overall economy and the economy needs a functioning…
Real Buying or Shorts Covering?
More bad news for the EU apparently is good for stocks. Is this buying real or shorts who are getting margin called out of their positions at the highs? Let's find out tonight and show you a few potential high probability trades that you can take with limited risk. Butterfly's Guide to Weekly Returns Class…
Renzi Loses Referendum
As I projected Matteo Renzi lost the referendum. The margin of his defeat was more than the polls had indicated. He was down by the mid-single digits in the last polls, with about 20% undecided. “No” ended up winning the election by almost 20 points. The trend continues towards populist candidates winning and the undecided…
Italy Banks Facing Italeave Woes
The technicalities of the Italian election are not important, in my opinion, because they don’t accurately characterize the reason why Italians are voting. They want change and reforms to their government; however, they don’t trust the current system run by bankers and politicians. Because the “No” vote is for the status quo and the replacement…
Italeave is Becoming More Likely
December 4th is the Italian election which means on Monday we will know the results and possibly the implications of them. Those predicting the “No” vote will win the election are calling for an increased likelihood of Italy leaving the Euro currency and possibly the European Union. The details of how we get to a…
Interest Rates Soar, Should Asset Bubbles Feel the Fear?
In this weekend edition we dive into what the bond market sell off means for the rest of the market. In the last 3 weeks interest rates have gone from historic lows to multi-year highs. As the cost of borrowing increases and the rate of return investors can get from safer asset classes increases; what…
Interest Rates Are Rising
Interest rates are rising at an accelerated clip. This leads me to question how long the asset bubbles can last. Currently we are in the midst of a sector rotation. Technology and biotech stocks have been underperforming and financials, energy, and industrials have been increasing. The logic behind the sector rotation does not hold. The…