Fed Hawkishness Reverberates
Yesterday’s Fed rate hike and hawkish guidance has had big impacts on global markets. It has accelerated the sovereign bond selloff. I have made the claims that central banks have been keeping interest rates low to fund the debts governments have run up. You can argue that the Fed now has no choice when it…
Market Character and Opportunity into the New Year
A look back on where we came from this year and a look forward as to what the opportunities are in the New Year...
Fed Statement Analyzed
There was a panelist on CNBC during its coverage of the Fed decision who put out the idea that the Fed would raise rates 6 times next year. If Trump’s polices do create growth and the Fed reacts to this by raising rates 6 times, Trump will attack the Fed, calling it a political entity…
Fed Raises Rates
Today the Fed raised rates by a quarter point. It provided guidance for three rate hikes in 2017. This is an increase of one rate hike in 2017 from the September dot plot. 2018 and 2019 have that quarter point rate hike pulled through, but have no additional rate hikes from what was expected. The…
Volatility Quietly Purchased
No surprise today the FOMC came out and raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points. Despite the near certainty of the rate increase bonds, stocks, and specifically financials sold off. Rates continue to move up too much and too fast. However, what does volatility know? Here's what its been telling us recently...
What Can Go Wrong?
The market is hyperbolic in its bullishness which has no basis in anything tangible other than optimism that Trump’s presidency will bring GDP growth and reignite corporate profit growth. It’s natural to want to be optimistic, but this rally is too powerful. At some point, early in Trump’s term, speculators will recognize the obvious: Trump…
Inflation Could End the EU
In a recent article, I had the wrong tone about future European monetary policy. I reflected what Draghi would like to do, not what is likely to happen. Draghi is in favor of extending the bond buying program, but the Germans are against it. This disagreement will cause fireworks which threatens the survival of the…
Buying it Forward...For Now
The headline news is all about Dow 20,000 and given all the attention it's receiving you can expect this index of only 30 stocks to hit that mark. In tonight's video newsletter let's look at the higher time frames to help give us a good read as to what we might expect next...
The Budget Deficit Is Dire
The budget deficit for the first two months has been released. It is the dire situation the country finds itself in. It represents the lack of wiggle room Trump will have to get his agenda passed. There have been questions about the possibility of the government trying to spend money to boost growth to help…
Cost Cutter In Chief
President Trump has shown the type of leader he will be over the next 4 years in his recent actions as President elect. He has been shown to be what I am coining ‘the cost-cutter in chief.’ I have been skeptical of Trump’s campaign line that he would get rid of “waste, fraud, and abuse”…