More Jobs Than Ever
Today we got the BLS non-farm payrolls jobs report, which indicates more jobs than ever. The headline missed expectations as we saw 161,000 in jobs gains instead of the 173,000 expected. Because of revisions to the past two months we saw an increase of 44,000 jobs. While my expectations for a miss were wrong, we…
Factoring Movement Into Tuesday
With the presidential election spread continuing to widen we turn to the most immediate economic news. Tomorrow will be last jobs report before the election. It will also be a key measure of what the Fed will do in their last meeting of the year. The markets have already factored in a 66% chance of…
Two Elections In The QE Economy
I am following two elections in the QE economy this November. The first election is the presidential election on November 8th. The second election is the Tesla-Solar City merger. Both elections will affect the market in different ways. Both are also symbolic of the way our current economic system is set up. It rewards those…
The Market Looks Unstable
The market looks unstable and extraordinarily weak right now. As I’m typing we are about to see the 8th down day in a row in the S&P 500. Trump is gaining in the swing state polls. The jobless claims have been shooting higher. Finally, Facebook had a bad earnings report which is sending it and…
Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons
Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons--There wasn’t much of a surprise today when the Federal Reserve stated it wouldn’t be raising rate and that the case for a rate hike strengthened. This time 2 Fed officials dissented instead of the 3 which dissented in September. It’s strange how Steve Liesman reported this as…
Signs of Long Duration Risk Emerging
Markets continue to weaken in key areas. We have been talking for a while about a small group of stocks holding the markets higher. Today we saw a breakdown of these stocks much greater than the overall market. Here's where you need to keep your eyes on in the coming days...
Small Businesses Showing Weakness
Today the ADP report came out, with small businesses showing weakness. It wasn’t a great report when looking at the headline as the report showed 147,000 jobs created which was 18,000 below expectations. However, if you look deeper into the report, it looks even worse as small business job growth was the weakest category. Small…
How the S&P500 Will Handle the Next Week
Lots of catalysts over the next week around the S&P500 starting tomorrow with the FOMC announcement. Unemployment numbers come out on Friday. Oh and let's not forget the Presidential election which encompasses wikileaks and FBI announcements. Here's how to navigate the markets in the face all these landmines...
It's a Trump Market
In a past article I mentioned how the chances of Trump’s election rising would cause the market to decline because his monetary policy statements have been critical of the current administration’s dovish policies, which I call a Trump Market. If the current policy was hawkish, the economy would crater. A Trump election could cause a…
Suspension of Logic
After every market correction like we are seeing right now, we get to see the same S&P 500 prices we saw in 2014, which is a total suspension of logic in many ways. It is up just 2% since November of 2014. If Trump wins the election, it will most likely go below that point.…