Is The Labor Market Strong?
The biggest question on my mind as an investor who focuses on macroeconomics...is the labor market strong? This Friday we will get the non-farm payrolls data which has shown to be weakening off the peak for many months now. However, it is still showing a positive number of jobs created allowing the unemployment rate to…
Traders Are Going Long on Volatility, Are You Ready?
With traders buying up and going long on volatility, what are they preparing for? The only thing that moved today was volatility. Let's take a look...
A Trump Fed?
The new announcement that the FBI is re-opening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails has moved the polls in Trump’s favor, creating a type of "Trump Fed", with many having him trailing in the low single digits nationally. This puts the possibility of Trump winning the election back onto the table if we assume they…
Risk Metrics Explode as Markets Approach a Key Threshold
An October surprise sends volatility spiking higher on Friday. Here's what to look for this coming week. What types of trades to put on and how to take advantage of the election spread...
Trump Is Brexit
Trump IS Brexit. Allow me to explain. The presidential election was in the news today as the FBI re-opened its case investigating Hillary Clinton’s emails after new evidence was found in its research into Anthony Weiner’s separate case. This sent stocks falling mildly. I think we can extrapolate the effect it had on the market…
Soybean GDP Report
The Soybean GDP report came out this morning showing 2.9% growth. I must correct my mistake yesterday where I said the median estimate was 2.9% because the media is reporting the median estimate was 2.5%, so it beat expectations. Looking at the report, there is a lot of weakness behind the great headline number. It’s…
Q3 GDP Will Be Best Of Year
Today was the biggest day of the earnings season with giants Amazon and Alphabet reporting among a slew of others. However, tomorrow’s focus will also be on the Q3 GDP report which is likely to be the best of the year. While it will be the best of the year, baring a shocking report, it…
Catching the Russell 2000 Sneaking Out the Back Door
AMZN and GOOGL came out with earnings after the bell and they seem to be offsetting each other. There are not many stocks holding this market up and we think we are on the cusp of some volatility finally hitting this market. Here's why...
Tesla Smoke & Mirrors
Tesla is the ultimate representative of this current environment. It consistently loses money, misses expectations, and maintains its status as an exciting growth company. Businesses with strong fundamentals are few and far between. Today I saw a stat that said the FANG (Facebook, Google, Netflix, Amazon) stock performance makes up 90% of the S&P 500’s…
How Are Earnings?
Going into this earnings season earnings were expected to decline 2% year over year. Earnings expectations are a farce unfortunately. Analysts may have always been lowered expectations to foster earnings beats, but this practice has become painfully obvious recently because of the current environment where EPS growth has been negative while stocks have been rallying.…