In a Myriad of Risks, Efficiency Looms Large
There are two types of volatility in the market historical and implied. The big difference between the two is implied volatility is forward looking. Implied volatility tells you what the markets expects to happen going forward. Here are the opportunities when the market becomes too efficient...
John “Cryin’”: Deutsche Bank Failure Speculation Dominates Headlines
To quote Bill Murray from Groundhog Day, “well it’s Monday…. Again.” And to paraphrase the same dialogue “....and that must mean we’re talking about Deutsche Bank and OPEC. You want a winter prediction? I'll give you a winter prediction. It's gonna be cold. It's gonna be gray. And it's gonna last you for the rest…
Are You Seeing This Risk?
Let's review historical volatility vs. implied volatility. What does each mean and why is it important? These two market gauges are what I look to when determining market risk. You may not be seeing all this risk I am...
US Election Just Took A Backseat To Germany
Ok, so Deutsche Bank is all you need to know about today. We know we wrote about it earlier, but this is a major, major concern. Consider this from ABC News (and we don’t quote them as some kind of financial authority, but rather to emphasize the magnitude of the problem): “Germany's biggest bank is…
Oh, Look! Deutsche Bank Rallies 14% on A $5 Billion Settlement
Well, what goes up must come down and we suppose what goes down must come up - unless you’re Lehman of course. For some reason - and we know why - yesterday’s market boogeyman became today’s market savior in a testament to how ridiculous this whole enterprise has become. Here’s the headline summary for those…
Some Questions For WSJ’s Oil “Axe”
WSJ’s Summer Said has (probably inadvertently) found herself in the position of the proverbial “axe” on oil prices. According to her Twitter profile she’s “a Middle East Energy and OPEC Correspondent, The Wall Street Journal. Former Reuters Correspondent and actress.” To be clear, we have our connections there, but we’ve never spoken to her. Now…
“Iceberg Right Ahead!” Deutsche Bank In Deep, Deep Trouble
Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you on Wednesday. It was all about Deutsche Bank today as the ADRs crashed to record lows on reports hedge funds are pulling funds from the bank’s prime brokerage. In other words, there’s a run on Deutsche Bank. So for once this... ...didn’t matter. No OPEC deal was going…
Top Down Index Thoughts, and a Technical Framework
The indexes continue to battle back and forth in a tight range. Let's turn our attention to stocks that have gone vertical and what typically happens after that...
OPEC “Deal” Boosts Risk; We Call False Alarm
Well, what can you say? OPEC hit everybody with a haymaker. Here’s the bullet point summary via Bloomberg: “WTI trades near $45/bbl as market focuses on meeting between OPEC ministers in Algiers. Algeria proposes 796k b/d OPEC cut at meeting.” OPEC’s strategy of pushing out high-cost competitors is at a “turning point” as members max…
Getting Short the 830 pound AMZN Gorilla
Watch tonight's video for a TheoTrade idea. AMZN is displaying a 2 standard deviation move to the upside in the last 10 trading sessions making the stock movement statistically significant whereby providing a contrarian setup. Additionally, market technicians Jeff Bierman and Doc Severson have pointed out the RSI Laguerre is displaying highly overbought and the…