Smartest Guys In The Room Tell You Where To Invest Ahead Of Election
There’s an election coming up. Did you notice? Apparently you didn’t: (Chart: Goldman) As you can see from the above, we’re well below the median (in fact we’re below the 25 percentile) when it comes to equity market uncertainty ahead of a US presidential election. Which is of course curious considering headlines like this: …
Tokyo, We Have A Problem
It seems pretty clear that markets are not going to cooperate with the Bank of Japan. Recall that earlier this week, Haruhiko Kuroda announced the bank would begin managing the yield curve in an apparent effort to steepen things up a bit so the country’s banks don’t shrivel up and die. Here’s a look at…
A Three Month Pass
The Fed has decided to sit on their hands once again. This gives the market a 3 month pass since no one will expect them to raise rates the week of the election. This means the only possible rate hike in 2016 would come in December. We can't trade the market we want we need…
What Goes Up, Must Come Down
What can you say about Thursday? Triumph of the central bankers we suppose. It’s all up: That’s stocks and oil. Now have a look at bonds: Same story. Steady, but with a yield bias lower. Here’s how Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow put it: “That dud landed with a thud. It fits the FOMC’s desired narrative to…
SPX Pegs Risk Perfectly
Bank of Japan and Janet Yellen are now in our rearview mirror. Markets rallied right into our resistance zone that we have been watching for the last few weeks. Tomorrow will be a key day. After Fed announcements the first move may not always be the last one. We are living in one of the…
Fed Sparks Rally With Maybe-Dovish, Maybe-Hawkish Hold
Ok, well that worked out well… Fed on hold? Just buy it all, dammit. And here’s the VIX: Poor volatility - we’re starting to feel sorry for it. Here’s the full bullet point summary for anyone who missed it: FED SAYS NEAR-TERM RISKS TO OUTLOOK ‘APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED’ FED: HIKE CASE HAS STRENGTHENED AS FORECAST…
Assessing The Bank Of Japan’s Latest Move
Make no mistake, there really was no getting this “right” for the Bank of Japan. When you’re monetizing the entirety of gross JGB issuance, buying up 60% of the ETF market, and rates are already negative, there’s not much you can do in the way of “shocking and aweing” the market. So they got “creative.”…
The Fed/BoJ Policy Matrix: Full Schematic
All you have to do to understand how nervous markets are ahead of Wednesday is have a look at how the major averages across the globe performed today. Everything is mixed from the US to Europe to Asia. There are lingering concerns that the market may be pricing the Fed decision wrong. Barclays thinks that’s…
Ready, Set...
After tomorrow night the market will be free from the constraints of upcoming Bank of Japan and Fed announcements. Either the markets have already priced in the news or they're going adjust to a new reality...
“No We’re Not Crazy”: Two Banks Say Expect Fed Hike Tomorrow
It’s official. Barring a flash crash or a terrorist attack, we’ve seen the most spectacular fireworks show we’re going to see on Tuesday and it came from a the fire-breathing dragon that is Sen. Elizabeth Warren. This is a politician that makes Bernie Sanders look meek when it comes to lambasting Wall Street and boy,…