Narrow Your Field of View for Today’s Opportunities
When swing trading isn't working because the markets aren't moving it's time to intra-day trading. Here are the types of trades we look for on an intra-day basis as we wait for the markets to break out of the tight range...
Markets Shrug Off Draghi Dud
Ok, so Draghi was a dud. Which pardon the crassness, but anyone with any common sense knew he would be. September is a month to preserve optionality- not to be a hero. This has been a year characterized by lost faith in central banks. See the movements in the yen for evidence. This wasn’t the…
Draghi On Deck
Ok, get ready. The September central bank-a-thon begins Thursday at 8:00 ET with Super Mario and the ECB. For those who missed it, here’s the complete September tail risk event schedule courtesy of UBS: (Chart: UBS) So let’s talk Draghi, shall we? Now if you ask us, we think the counter-cyclical room is limited here…
Facebook Sets Up for a Short Trade
A fun fact for TheoTraders - real volatility in the market is now at an historic low. Never before has the market seen less movement and today was no different with the indexes moving 0%. In a market like this you need to look at specific stocks for set ups. Tonight I'll share with you…
Peak Absurdity, Or, “A Sad Commentary”
It’s always dangerous to call a top in absurdity (“peak absurdity”, if you will), but if we’re not close to it by now when it comes to flip-flopping Fed predictions then we don’t know what peak absurdity might look like. As Richard Breslow put it last week: “Every market trading in lockstep is a legacy…
Sleepy Tuesday
So it’s a sleepy Tuesday, which is to be expected because God knows what went on in the Hamptons over the weekend. But the desks better get it together quick because as you all know, this is a big month. In fact - and this is a sad state of affairs- the fate of the…
Starting to Lean into Expected Rise in Volatility
The markets continue to hang on every word from the Fed. The Fed is very unlikely to change monetary policy until December. What that means is a continuation of historic low interest rates and no change in the status quo. However, let's review some exhaustion signs from the market and see what opportunities are ahead...
“Crude” Realities Rear Their Ugly Head
Well, you’ve gotta love crude. A while back - we’re not sure exactly how long, chalk it up to bad short-term memory - we noted that this was about to become another round of OPEC headline hockey, all of it completely meaningless except of course to the non-thinking algos that will simply buy/sell the “news”…
The Big Hedge Driving Markets
Free Online Seminar The Next Big Short with Don Kaufman Wednesday, September 7th at 8 PM New York Time / 7 PM Central https://archive.theotrade.com/short/ Thanks to the Volker rule in the Dodd-Frank Bill big banks need to dynamically hedge their positions. This means when the market goes up they need to buy S&P Futures into…
Are We On A Path To De-Globalization?
One of the most important things to understand about the upcoming US election is that both candidates seem to be leaning towards adopting some manner of protectionist policies. For Clinton, it seems to be an outgrowth of her protracted battle against Bernie Sanders whose message about lost jobs resonated among large swaths of the electorate.…