Technical Analysis vs. Statistical Analysis = Same Result
Stocks take off higher moving about 1% up across the board. In tonight's video let's look at the market through two lenses because either lens you want to use you get the same result. Watch tonight's video to find out what the most likely outcome will be for tomorrow's trading day and what opportunities you…
The IMF Recognizes The Debt Bubble
In this article, I will discuss the findings posted in the IMF’s Global Stability Report and some of the latest economic statistics. The IMF’s report was shocking as it has graphs that look like what economic realists like John Hussman and David Stockman publish. When the bearish narrative leaks into government reports, you know the…
Oil and IBM Crash On Wednesday
The three news items which drove equities on Wednesday were the drop in oil prices, the drop in IBM’s stock, and the Fed’s Beige Book. I recently called IBM a zombie stock because of its revenue declines. The weakness is finally being reflected in the stock as it is down about 11% since March 1st.…
Oil Reversal Disrupts Markets
Stocks opened higher this morning shaking off more bad earnings this time from IBM. However, as the trading day progressed indices so lower highs and lower lows into the close. Oil sudden tumble mid day sent shockwaves into the rest of the market. In tonight's video we will identify the single best opportunity in the…
Global Government Bond Yields Are Plummeting
The latest movements in markets are starting to be in sync with a slow growth economy. This makes sense as the blue-chip GDP forecast has been decelerating quickly. The global trend in declining bond yields can be see below. The range the U.S. ten-year bond was in for the beginning of the year has been…
Bonds Biggest Risk to Stocks
Stocks ended the day slightly lower as poor earnings from GS and JNJ pulls the markets down. However, the big mover of the day was the Bond market. For those that don't know the bond market is much larger than the stock market. Bonds are a flight to safety and with volume extremely light in…
Millennials Can’t Catch A Break
The previous discussion about the labor market showed how it’s tough to quantify the slack in the labor market. The Fed has been relatively dovish at the end of this cycle even though the unemployment rate suggests the labor market is near full employment. Another reason why the Fed hasn’t been hawkish has been the…
Is Passive Investing Toxic?
I can analyze the economy in specific detail for endless articles, but the health of the economy has had declining relation to the stock market returns lately. I calculated the correlation between quarterly GDP and the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2016. The correlation coefficient is 0.973 which signals there’s very high correlation between the…
Buying Them to Sell Them Later?
Stocks rallied and volatility came smashing back down today after all the weekend excitement turned out to be a dud. Earnings season is upon us and there will be lots of big companies reporting this week starting with NFLX. The market will be pushed around one way or the other by earnings this week. In…
How Much Slack Is In The Labor Market?
There is an interesting bifurcation in the economic data and the earnings data which I will discuss in this article. The reason I say it’s interesting is because it’s unexpected and unsustainable. It’s simply impossible to have a long period where earnings are growing above their trend and GDP is growing below its trend because…