Auto & Student Loan Bubbles
The markets have reversed some the recent trends where the Trump trade was unwinding. This could mean there will be a pause or a continuation of the Trump trade into the spring. The S&P 500 is up less than 1% from the lows of the mini-correction. There are many dip-buyers who are praying for a…
What Is The True Aggregate S&P 500 Earnings?
Before I get into the meat of this article, I will provide supporting evidence and clarification for points I made in a previous article. I described the recent political polarization which has occurred in consumer sentiment surveys. In the Gallup survey below, you can see how Republicans have become more likely to make a major…
Financials Eroding Market Strength
Stocks ended the day slightly higher on very light volume. There is a lot of end of the quarter window dressing as fund managers are rotating capital out of some investment products into others. In tonight's market update let's look at a comparison chart of all the major industries to see what is leading and…
Fuzzy Tax Reform Math
Much is being made of the GOP’s fiscal policy because of the shift in monetary policy towards hawkishness and because there’s a high amount of uncertainty over what legislation will be passed and when it will be passed. The chart below is Barclay’s estimation of when various policies will be passed along with some key…
‘Dumb Money’ Most Bullish 2000
The S&P 500 rallied 0.72% on Tuesday, ending the sell-off which was driven by the GOP’s failure to deliver healthcare reform. The hope trade is not going away easily even though many of the market supporting factors have gone away or gotten weaker. The stock market is like a Jenga game. Taking away healthcare reform…
S&P Staying in This Range?
Stocks continued the rally from yesterday morning's lows on news that consumer confidence leaped to a 16 year high. In tonight's video report let's look at the two possibilities for the market going forward and how you can prepare yourself for either scenario...
Is The Credit Market Signaling Recession?
Stocks are slightly off their all-time high, but remain over extended according to most valuation metrics. The hope investors have is for tax cuts. Even though the GOP appears dysfunctional, all its members want to cut taxes. All hope for a tax cut isn’t lost, but the difficult part is finding cuts in the budget…
Volatility Says, "Risk Remains Serious"
Stocks opened lower today with the major indices falling 1% before reversing and ending the day near unchanged. In tonight's video let's discuss volatility! Watch tonight's video for an in depth discussion on volatility in today's market that you will not get anywhere else...
The Trump Trade Seems Mostly Reversed
The stock market sold off moderately on Monday due to the continued negative momentum caused by the failed GOP healthcare bill. There is talk of Paul Ryan possibly being removed from the Speaker of the House position which is something I discussed previously. Ordinarily, that would be bearish for stocks because it adds to the…
Real Economic Weakness?
The stock market doesn't seem to be reflecting the economic weakness we are seeing. The bullish counterpoint to any negative data is that the economy will improve due to fiscal stimulus. The latest blunders in the attempt to pass healthcare reform makes fiscal stimulus seem less likely. To simplify this further, the bears say the…