Follow The Fed Pension Fund’s Actions
Fed Pension Fund Bearish? I disagree with almost all the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, but I have found one Fed related vehicle which I agree with. The vehicle I agree with is the Fed’s pension plan because it has been lessening exposure to equities. The Fed’s plan is not run by Fed members. However, it…
This is the Tech Index to Follow
Stocks ended the day slightly higher, but on much lower volume than we have seen in the last few trading sessions. In tonight's market update I want to show you a very under utilized indicator that I use in time's like this. Also watch the video for this tech index I created to follow the…
Volatility Second Lowest Ever
Lately I’ve been focusing on the bond market and the dollar more because the stock market simply is not doing much. I sometimes joke that the stock market isn’t on or is broken because there have been so many days where it closes nearly unchanged. In Q1 2017, the Dow had 15 days where it…
Ten Year Yield Falls To 2.33%
Monday was the first day of the second quarter which usually means new money is flowing into the stock market. However, there was a minor sell off led by financials. Besides it being the first day of the month and quarter, another reason why I thought stocks may have rallied Monday is because Senator Rand…
Markets Test a Sell Off
Stocks sold off this morning as Bonds rallied more than 1 full point in an hour. Stocks recovered more than half of the losses on the day. One of the most interesting aspects of the market was the volatility futures. For the first time since the sell off in January of 2016 this happened...
Productivity Fell 0.2% In 2016; Stocks Rose 5.5% In Q1
The first quarter is now in the books. It was quite an interesting three months as President Trump was sworn in and stocks had an amazing run as they maintained the post-election momentum. The chart below shows the powerful rally in the S&P 500 since the election. The S&P 500 was up 5.5% for the…
Is Your Risk Worth the Reward?
Stocks started the week in trouble and then rebounded the rest of the week. However, not all of the market internals rebounded with the stock market. In this important weekend update we look at what volatility market is saying and what Bonds are doing. Watch this market video update to assess your risk and find…
WTI Was Up 5.5% This Week
In this article, I will review some of the trends I have been discussing and the news surrounding them. Then I will discuss the latest movements in oil. After the crash to the upper $40s, the commodity has moved back above the $50 level this week. This is great news for the American shale firms.…
Record Margin Debt Makes Stock Market Vulnerable
In this article, I will tie up some loose ends from a previous article. I’ll give more supporting facts to further my points. Then I will contextualize the recent statements made by President Trump and NY Fed President Bill Dudley. I have an interesting chart which supports my analysis on the likelihood of various fiscal…
Three Ways Out of the Penalty Box for the S&P
Stocks inch higher today on very light end of the quarter window dressing buying. In this video we continue to focus on the S&P because this market sets the tone for all the other stocks out there. The S&P is in a very tight range and there one of three ways that range can break…