Stocks Follow The Dollar Lower
On Tuesday, the stock market sold off as it finally followed the recent trend in the 10-year bond and dollar. I have mentioned in a previous article that the 10-year bond yield decline is a sign inflation expectations and GDP growth estimates have diminished. Some may have postulated the 10-year yield falling was a minor…
$131.11 In S&P 500 Earnings Expected In 2017
While the major stock indices remain near their record highs and show no sign of having their first 5% correction in a few months, there has been changes to the underlying drivers of equities. The changes afoot are that fiscal policy must replace monetary policy in supporting the market and that earnings growth is going…
Trade Ideas in TSLA, TLT, and EEM
Stocks ended the day flat with extremely low volume. Watch tonight's video newsletter for 3 swing trading set ups that I entered today...
Peak In The Labor Market?
Over the weekend, I was speaking with my cousin about a pawnshop he went to. He told me the owner told him that no one comes to the store to pawn items anymore. The owner said he should turn the store into a regular retailer. That is a sign of the economic times. Pawning an…
3 Reasons Why We’re Near A Top
There are a few major alarm bells ringing which signal a top in this bull cycle could occur in the next few months. I will review those ominous signals in this article. Then I will review the latest news in the battle to get healthcare reform passed Congress. The one obvious positive the GOP has…
Bonds are the 800lb Gorilla in the Markets
Stock indexes ended the week relatively flat as the small amount of volatility in the market was quickly sucked out. In this extended weekend edition let's take a long term view of stocks and bonds. Where has the all the volume gone in stock market and will the recent changes in interest rates change that?…
Inflation Expectations Moderate
In my last article, I mentioned the big difference between the NY Fed and Atlanta Fed’s model for Q1 GDP growth. I tended to side with the Atlanta Fed’s model because it has a longer track record and was closer to the street’s average estimate. Today both estimates updated. The Atlanta Fed’s model stayed at…
Bank Loan Growth Slowing
In this article, I will review the latest bank loan growth data, but first I will discuss what’s driving this market higher and what the Q1 GDP growth may look like. It will be interesting to see what the actual Q1 GDP growth rate turns out to be because the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast…
FOMC Statement Review
As I mentioned in my previous article, the Fed didn’t unwind the balance sheet because it can’t. Interest rates would rise to such high levels the federal government would have a tough time paying off the interest on the debt. The idea that the Fed isn’t using the balance sheet to affect the economy is…
Extended Range Coming & Strategies to Match
Yesterday the Fed gave the market certainty with a 25 basis point increase and guidance for the rest of the year. Today stocks looked anything, but certain. The mixed day ended with the Nasdaq making new all time highs while the rest of indexes trail behind. All of the indexes saw selling as the day…