What to Expect this Week
In this weekend's special edition video let's look at what to expect this week. There is a lot higher risk on the table than there has been in the last few months. This video also includes an important explanation into how major firms are hedging in this current market environment and how it impacts what…
Great Labor Report
In this article, I will review the latest jobs report. I will then explain what it means for the market and monetary policy. As you can see in the chart on the right, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the non-farm payrolls employment increased 235,000 which beat the upwardly revised expectations for 200,000 jobs created.…
The 10-Year Bond Hits Bill Gross’ 2.60% Target
We are in an interesting time for equity investing because productivity is stuck in a rut, yet stocks are levitating higher. Since productivity growth drives economic growth, there’s no way stocks can rally in the long-term without it. I think both will correct as productivity growth will likely revert to the mean, possibly due to…
Get Ready - employment report shows risk ahead
The indexes finished the day massively unchanged. However, Oil and Bonds continues to move lower ahead of the job report on Friday. All eyes on the job report as this seems to be the most important one to come out in a while. It's the last major economic report before the Fed decides a potential…
Oil Falls & the GOP’s Timeline Extends Further
The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S&P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a…
Oil Falls Over 5%
The main reason why the stock market fell Wednesday was because of a 5.38% decline in WTI oil. My prediction for oil prices to fall because of a high amount levered long trades and high inventory levels finally began to come true. My thesis has been that oil prices falling to the high $30s would…
Are Rising Interest Rates Good for Anyone?
The stock indexes end the day slightly lower once again. As rates move higher all eyes will be on the jobs report on Friday to see if the report will affirm the expected rate hike next week or give the Fed an excuse to delay. For the SPX we look back at the expected move…
1.2% Q1 GDP Growth But Strong Private Sector Jobs Growth?
In this article, I will continue the discussion about the indicators which are telling separate stories. Many hard data economic reports have been weak; the corporate debt level would seem to indicate the cycle should have ended already. Even with slow GDP growth last year and a debt cycle which appears to be near its…
GOP Presents Its Healthcare Plan
The stock market is pricing in flawless results from the GOP in terms of fiscal policy. To analogize, it’s like when the market is expecting a company to beat earnings estimates and raise guidance. If the company meets expectations, the stock falls after hours because it’s priced for perfection. I have a few charts to…
This is Not Selling - Yet
For the 4th consecutive trading day stocks ended slightly lower or unchanged. After the March 1st break out day the major indexes are near the low of that day. Since then there has been Fed comments that took the probability of a March interest rate hike to 84%. Here's what to expect the higher Fed…