Latest On Fiscal Policies (Government Shutdown)
Although some earnings reports have beaten expectations, it’s surprising to see the stock market whistling passed the grave yard as uncertainty on the fiscal front is heightened. Trump’s presidential legacy will be made in the next few months. The worst-case scenario would be a government shutdown with no tax cut and healthcare plan passed. The…
Last Line of Defense For Bears
Stocks continue to move higher today. The talk of the day was the Nasdaq break out to new all time highs setting up a much larger move in the years ahead. In tonight's video we will look at the more short term. Is there anything left for the bears to hang their hopes and dreams?…
Will Margins Revert To The Mean?
As was mentioned in a previous article, the 12-month earnings which includes Q1 2017 are below the Q3 2014 peak. This 6.3% decline cannot be emphasized enough given misleading headlines about earnings growth driving stocks higher. If earnings falling didn’t push stocks lower, you can’t make the case that earnings growth is pushing them higher.…
Is Trump’s Tax Plan Feasible?
The stock market roared higher on Monday because Macron appears to have locked up the French presidential election. He beats Le Pen in all the polls by at least twenty points. This makes me wonder what it takes for stocks to fall. Stocks rallied after the populist wins which were Brexit and Trump. They then…
French Election Crushes Volatility
Today's rally mostly happened last night when the Futures markets opened. The major index Futures gapped up and then stayed in a tight range throughout the trading session. The biggest surprise was the volatility crush caused by the French election. The market breathed a sigh of relief as only one of the two anti-EU candidates…
Stocks Rally As Macron and LePen Make Second Round Of French Presidential Election
Inflation Decelerates Before I get into the latest market moving headlines this week, I want to emphasize the recent movement in inflation. While I have mentioned the decelerating inflation in passing, I didn’t give it enough coverage considering the large movement the CPI had in March. As you can see from the chart below, the…
Tax Cuts And Healthcare Reform Coming Soon?
The stock market was down modestly on Friday as the S&P 500 remained within the recent trading range it has been in. The bulls have prevented a 5% correction, but the market hasn’t made a new closing high since March 1st. The pace the market was rallying at earlier in the year was unsustainable. There…
Significant Risk Prevalent for the Week Ahead
The major stock indices once again ended a week within the expected move and that is why we have been talking about this in every weekend update for months. Going into next week implied volatility has risen across the board signaling major risk in the market. The expected move in the S&P has not been…
Weak Productivity Growth Is A Global Problem
The question of where American productivity growth has gone is plaguing policymakers. Without productivity growth, the economy must rely on credit growth to boost GDP. Credit growth is like food. If you eat a normal amount, you’ll be fine. If you eat too much food, you gain wait and become unhealthy. If the debt piles…
Stocks Rally On Fiscal Policy Progress By Republicans
The stock market rallied on Thursday as it appears the mini 3% correction is over. As I’ve mentioned, there is a large group of investors who are dying to get into the market. Whenever there is a 5% correction, they plow money into stocks. Because 5% corrections have become rare, these bullish investors preempt them…