Stocks Haven’t Moved 0.2% In 8 Days
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time closing high on Friday. It’s notable how tight of a range stocks have been in recently. There’s been 8 consecutive days without a 0.2% move in stocks. As you can see from the chart below, that’s the longest streak since 1964. The all-time longest streak is 10 days,…
Good News From Washington D.C.
Thursday’s action seems to be unusual because everything that came out of the fiscal policy front was positive, but stocks didn’t move higher. The S&P 500 has closed at almost the same level for a few days. The VIX was below an 11 handle once again, signaling not even a whiff of risk is on…
Risk is Cheap Ahead of Jobs Report
Stocks flat on the day as volume has slowly increased all week, but still near Holiday-like lows. Despite all of the risks the market was once worried about - health care bill, French election on Sunday, and the jobs report Friday morning - risk remain at historic lows. The cost of risk is cheap and…
Fed Expected To Hike Again In June
This article will focus on the Fed’s May meeting where it decided to maintain the federal funds rate between 75 and 100 basis points. The stock market had a slight increase in response to the decision, but that may have been because Apple rallied throughout the day after opening lower. The 10-year bond yield increased…
We Are This Close to a Breakout
As discussed in last night's market update the FOMC announcement did nothing to move the markets. Stocks stayed in a tight range and brushed aside the news of the day. In tonight's video we will look at the ONE sector to watch that will tell us if markets are going to break out to new…
Volatility Craters As The Nasdaq Soars
Volatility is extremely low and stocks have relentlessly rallied. The rally has not been even among the indices with the Nasdaq outperforming and the Russell 2000 lagging. The Nasdaq is up 12.65% year to date even after being down Wednesday partially because of Apple’s earnings disappointment. The Russell 2000 is only up 2.39% and underperformed…
Oil Investment Boosts GDP Growth
Oil Drives Weak GDP Growth I would like to continue the discussion about oil’s impact on the Q1 GDP growth report. Q3 2016 had great growth which was surprising because economic growth has been tepid. It led to an extensive review of the report which led to the realization that it was temporarily boosted by…
Apple's Earnings Phone It In
Stocks were flat today on very light volume as the market waited for AAPL to report after hours. Apple's phone sales dropped by about 400,000 from last year sending AAPL lower in after hours. The iphone sales are the major driver of AAPL's business. In tonight's video we look forward at the prospect that AAPL's…
Car Sales Remain Weak While Realized Volatility Plummets
Auto sales were responsible for the weak durable goods orders in the GDP report. It could be the catalyst of a recession. Therefore, it’s critical to focus on every new data point available in the car market. The latest information we have is in the chart below. As you can see Nissan, Toyota, Fiat Chrysler,…
Weak Soft Data A New Trend?
The new trend I am focusing my attention on is the deceleration of soft data. I am predicting this decline because soft data usually doesn’t surprise to the upside for long. It’s also clear that the hard data isn’t following suit which means the economy isn’t strong. The weak GDP report acts as a signal…