How Melt-Up Rallies Transition
The Nasdaq & S&P rally to new highs today on the back of a few stocks. In tonight's video we review the smart way to digest a runaway rally and what's the plan going forward...
Stocks Have Become Bonds & Vice Versa?
The desire for yield seems to have caused an increase in the percentage of loans which are covenant lite. One of the biggest bubbles in this economy is in junk debt as the need for yield and the length of time since the last recession has made junk bonds highly coveted. The chart below shows…
Is This Market Cycle Different?
I think the best description of this current cycle is ‘this time is different.’ I’m not implying that the stock market will rally indefinitely and that a recession will never happen. I’m saying that most of the indicators I look at which have had a great track record have been wrong. The most pivotal one…
Catastrophic Risks Exposed in Your ETF Products
Stocks grind higher after the FOMC minutes. S&P nearly touches the all time high and the Nasdaq went through it. In tonight's video we home in on the ETF market. As market volume has never before been so concentrated on only a handful of ETF products here are the risks you need to be aware…
Housing And Auto Sales Have Peaked
This article will review the latest economic data. The chart below shows the latest seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for lightweight vehicles and new homes. New home sales peaked in March at 642,000 and auto sales peaked in December 2016 at 18.3 million. April new home sales are down 11.4% from the peak and…
Bonds For Capital Gains & Stocks For Income?
The stock market has returned to where it has been this year as the VIX has gone back to below its median. The VIX is back below 11 and the S&P 500 is near its all-time high. Looking at the interplay between stocks and bonds, the bond market has undergone a seismic shift while the…
Mind the Gap on the S&P?
Stocks end the day slightly higher finishing off closing the gap in the major indices. In tonight's video we review the most recent gaps and the likely scenarios for the market from here. What's the good news and the bad news for the market right now...
Neel Kashkari Argues Against Pricking Financial Bubbles
The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is an outspoken thought leader on the Federal Open Market Committee. When he makes statements, it’s worth noting his points. I say he’s a thought leader, not because his points are correct, but because they can affect policy. I think his latest thesis was completely wrong. To summarize,…
Stocks Rebound Sharply After Last Week’s Selloff
The best analogy for last week’s decline in the stock market is a sun shower. The market was in a streak of record calmness, had one bad day, and is back to being calm just like how a sun shower comes and goes quickly. The chart below shows the changes in the VIX in the…
Markets Strong but Key Sectors Weaken
Stocks finished regaining last Wednesday's losses closing the overnight gap from last Tuesday into Wednesday. In tonight's video we get a lesson contrarian trading and review the stocks holding up the market despite the two largest sectors being flat...