Are Economic Earnings Weakening?
The last article was about corporate earnings. There are many ways to measure earnings. The top measurements are GAAP results and operating earnings. As I have shown in past articles, the BEA’s measurement of corporate profits shows lower growth than bottom up GAAP analysis. The BEA’s estimate is a top down analysis which looks at…
Volatility Meets Complacency Head-On
Stocks had a quick sell off at today's open and then the indices recouped much of the losses, but with the participation of the market leaders. Stocks like GOOGL and AMZN that has led the market higher did not today. In tonight's market update we look at major sectors of the S&P and level to…
Earnings Beat Rate Was 74.01% In Q1 (Highest Since At Least Q2 2013)
In this article, I will discuss some more of the details of the aggregate earnings reports as of May 22nd. Unsurprisingly, energy is the sector which is expected to have the highest projected annual 5-year earnings growth rate. This isn’t surprising because the sector is starting from a low base. Some of that growth is…
Online Jobs Ads Indicate Weak Labor Market
I like to look at every type of economic metric in doing research. The current environment is somewhat unprecedented in a few ways. One of those ways is the jobless claims stats. The jobless claims 4-week average hit a 44-year low which makes no sense because the labor market has expended. Considering unit labor costs…
Is the Russell 2000 About to Lead Markets?
Stocks flat today on Holiday volume. In fact today was the lowest volume trading day in the last 2 years as a lack of a catalyst is keeping traders sidelined. In tonight's video market update we focus in on the RUT which has been the laggard of the major indices. Is the RUT about to…
Amazon, Apple, Netflix, & Facebook Have Almost Identical Performance
In this article, I will review the latest earnings data as reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices. There was a two-week break in the data as the purveyor of it went on vacation. It’s always great to get a clear view of the bottom up earnings without any filters. Before I get into that information,…
GDP Growth Estimate Raised to 1.2% In Q1- Still Anemic
The first revision to Q1 GDP was released Friday. This is the report I was waiting for ever since the 0.7% growth report was released a few weeks ago. I have said that it’s important to take each first guess at GDP growth with a grain of salt because the number is subject to revisions.…
What's Left to Buy?
Stocks closed the week at all time highs. The S&P settled outside of the expected move by a few points for the first time since early February. Watch this weekend's special edition video market update as we compare the major sectors of the market to find out what has been powering the overall market forward.…
Stocks Up Dollar Down
Looking at the major stock market indexes it looks like the market has not cared that the U.S. macro surprise index has been negative while the European macro surprise index soars. Looking in more detail, there has been an underlying trend in markets which reflects the economic shift. The Russell 2000, which consists of firms…
The Unwind Policy Gets More Detailed
The Fed’s Minutes surprised many as it gave details about the balance sheet unwind. It was a smart idea to give some of the details since the FOMC has come to an agreement on the policy. Janet Yellen will have a press conference after the June meeting. Journalists and bankers can digest the new policy…