Industrial Production Beats Expectations
The estimate for Q1 GDP by the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast increased from 3.6% to 4.1% as you can see in the chart below. One of the reasons for the increase was the solid industrial production report released on Tuesday. It caused the forecast for real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth to increase from…
Stocks Reach All-Time Highs As Volatility Stays Low
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to all-time closing highs on Monday. The market was driven by materials, energy, and financials. Energy rallied because oil was up 2.1% to a two-week high. The energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in a statement that the production cuts should extend another 9 months to March…
Fading The Expected Moves
Stocks drift slightly higher today as money rotates out of big tech and into energy and financials. Tonight's video is about how to find opportunities in a quiet market, low volatility marketplace. Watch tonight's video to find out how we are fading the expected move of ETFs and indexes for intra-week and intraday opportunities...
Q1 2017 Was The Peak In Earnings Growth
In previous articles, I have mentioned that wage inflation would have to grow faster to slow employment growth and push down profit margins. The chart below shows the correlation between unit labor costs and profit margins. When unit labor costs go up, margins fall. What I didn’t mention is unit labor costs can be higher than…
The VIX Sets A New Record: 15 Days Below 11
The stock market’s movement on Friday was almost identical to Thursday. The market fell slightly because of the weakness in retail; the VIX stayed below 11 for the 15th consecutive day. As you can see in the chart below, the streak of the VIX being below 11 made another new record, destroying the previous one.…
Fate of the Markets Rests with AAPL and AMZN
Stocks end the week flat as money continues to pile into mainly only two stocks. Once again the market closes within the expected move and that's is why we have been sharing this each week. In this weekend video we will look at which stocks are holding the market together and what to look for…
QE Has Overstayed Its Welcome
The stock market had a small decline on Thursday which was brought about by the collapse in brick and mortar retail stocks. Even with the decline in the S&P 500, the VIX continued its streak of closes below 11. The S&P 500 is still within 1% of its all-time high. The stock market is as…
Healthcare Costs Eating Into Wages & Salaries
Healthcare & Rent Costs Exploding I have discussed the relationship between the hourly earnings growth and the expansion of employment by small businesses. Small firms are very optimistic as is shown in the NFIB small business survey. With optimism and demand for labor prevalent, increasing wages should follow. The net compensation reading for April 2017…
IPO Markets Die with a SNAP
Stocks sinked in early trading before pairing most of the losses by the end of the day. In tonight's video we review the IPO market - the ones that worked and the ones that have flopped. In the light of the major loss by SNAP let's look at how other IPOs have fared recently...
Equity ETF Inflows Hit A New Record High
The VIX rose above 10 on Wednesday, but the S&P 500 still barely moved. The S&P 500 hasn’t moved more than 0.5% intraday in 14 days which is the longest streak since 1971. As you can see in the chart below, the VIX has had a 13 day streak of closes below 11 which is…