Oil Nearing My High $30s Target
The biggest story of Wednesday’s trading was oil’s fall. WTI oil fell 3% to $42.47 which is the lowest price since last August. The 20% price decline in the first half of 2017 was the worst decline for a first half since 1997. Initially oil prices rallied because the EIA reported that inventories declined 2.5…
This is the Most Important Move to Watch
Today's trading couldn't get more mixed. The S&P, Dow, and Russell were all down today with the Nasdaq up 1%. In tonight's video we discuss the range bound S&P and the volatile Nasdaq and how we are trading BOTH of these indices. Also, watch tonight's video for longer term trading opportunities that we are setting…
Stock Speculation Reaches 2007 High
Even though the stock market fell slightly on Tuesday, the bull market is still strongly intact. As you can see from the graph below, the annualized volatility is the lowest since 1965. That’s remarkable as it means the volatility is lower than every year in the entire tech bubble bull market. The year is almost…
Dudley Remains Hawkish Despite Disinflation
On Monday, William Dudley stated he expects the Fed to raise rates 1 more time this year and 3 more times within the next 2 years while unwinding the balance sheet. My initial opinion on the Fed’s rate hike was it was a hawkish hike. However, the market didn’t perceive it that way. The market…
What Do the Bonds Know that Stocks Don't?
Stocks retreat today from yesterday's rally. Bonds continue to rally hitting 7 month high. Typically as bonds rally stocks sell off; however, this is anything, but a typical market. In tonight's video we discuss what the bonds know and the stocks don't. Watch tonight's video to find out what we expect from stocks...
Tech Stocks Are The New Consumer Staples
Tech Dominates Factor ETFs Today was a rare day because as the S&P 500 rose 0.83% to a new record high, the Shiller PE went above 30 for the first time in this bull market. Since the 1880s, the Shiller PE has only been above 30 from August to September 1929, from June 1997 to…
Earnings Look Good For Now: Q3 Headwinds Coming
The great Q1 earnings season is driving the bullish narrative as investors see this as an all clear sign to buy stocks hand over fist. However, the bulls argued during the earnings recession that the temporary blip lower was because of energy. Now, the temporary blip higher is driven by energy, but they are still…
AAPL and SPY Trade Ideas
Stocks rip higher today led by the Nasdaq. This is the exact move we said to watch for in the weekend edition because it creates lot of opportunity for us. In tonight's video let's look at two trade ideas for the week. One in the SPY which I've entered today and the other in AAPL…
Can NVIDIA Stock Rally Forever?
This article will serve to clarify some of the unclear points I have made in the past few articles. It’s important to analyze how you can be wrong to avoid sticking to bad bets when the tide begins to turn. For example, if you’re bearish on oil, but know which factors could push it higher,…
Watch these Stocks for the Market's Next Big Move
Stocks end the week mixed as the tech heavy Nasdaq saw the brunt of the selling. There are lots of aspects of the marketplace to look at in tonight's video. First, correlations breaking down across the board in indices and bond market. What does this mean for stocks? In this crucial weekend update we look…