Draghi Now Sings A Hawkish Tune
Draghi Expected to Taper 2018 Bond Buying While it definitely was dovish of Mario Draghi to say the ECB hadn’t discussed unwinding the balance sheet, it didn’t imply the ECB wouldn’t taper the 60 billion euro bond buying program in December. We got further clarification of the ECB’s tapering potential in December in the latest…
Divergence Against Big Tech Pressures Market
Today is the latest example of what we have discussed the last few weeks. The few stocks that have accounted for the majority of the gains are unwinding. In tonight's video let's look at those stocks and the expected range to look for in the markets for a consolidation or a more serious correction...
These are the Levels to Watch in Markets
The early rally in stocks quickly faded this morning as traders moved out of tech and into financials. Watch this video to find out the key levels to watch in the markets...
Q2 Earnings Shaping Up Well
Q2 Earnings Will Likely Be Good With central banks putting out guidance to shrink their balance sheets or taper buying and with U.S. fiscal stimulus delayed by at least a few months, earnings are more important than ever to keep the market up. As long as earnings growth is solid, the market should be steady.…
Valuations Are In The Top Quintile Implying 0.2% Annualized Returns
The chart below gives you an alternate way to look at the valuations in the stock market opposed to looking at the historical value of the Shiller PE. With the Shiller PE currently at 29.87, the market is in the 5th quintile meaning it’s in the category of market periods in the top 20% of…
Volatility in the Nasdaq a Persistent Threat
Once again the S&P remained within the expected move we have been talking about every week all year. In this crucial weekend update we take a deep dive into the sectors that are holding the market up. Watch this video to find out which sectors may be ready for a break down...
Wage Growth Acceleration Not Likely Unless Skills Gap Narrows
The increase in demand for workers isn’t leading to accelerated wage growth because there is a skills gap between what the labor force has and what employers want. The chart below reinforces the chart I showed in a previous article which had survey data. As you can see, hiring has fallen while the job openings…
The AHCA: Will It Stall The Bull Market?
Healthcare Plan Update The market is pricing in the economy maintaining the current pace which could mean stocks will rally when something gets done and selloff if nothing gets done. I’m expecting it to be a binary event meaning I don’t see a scenario where stocks selloff after a deal gets done even if the…
Stocks Diverging Again & RSI Scalps Still Working
Stocks diverging again today with fewer and fewer stocks participating in the rally higher. In tonight's video we look at what's still working. With volatility still at all time lows we have to look at smaller time frames. These are the type of short term trades that are working...
ECB Gets Audited
Clarifications Before I get into the discussion in this article, I want to point out an error I have made. I have compared GDP growth to S&P revenue growth, but that’s a mistake because it’s not an ‘apples to apples’ comparison. S&P revenue growth is in nominal terms while GDP growth is in real terms.…