The Technology Sector Was Up 38.8% In 2017
Momentum & Growth Dominate 2017 Since 2017 is now over, let’s look at the performance of various assets to get an idea of where they may be headed. The table below shows the month, quarter, and year performance of the headline indexes, various factor investment strategies, and each sector. Unsurprisingly, volatility was down for the…
This is Why Volatility Will Return in 2018
Happy New Year! In this crucial extended end of the year video we analyze why volatility will return in 2018. 2017 was the lowest volatility year on record. Risks in 2018 include interest rates increasing, central banks around the world reducing QE programs, and the FOMC selling off their balance sheet. Watch this video to…
Rule of 20 Signals Stocks Are Expensive
Final 5 Bear Market Signposts Let's review the bear market signposts individually to see if they imply a bear market is coming. 11 of the 19 warning signs have been triggered. In previous articles, I’ve reviewed the first 14 of them and determined that 4 are unreasonable, meaning less worry should be given about an…
Active Investing Faces Cyclical & Secular Headwinds
The Shift From Active To Passive Investing We reviewed the first 10 bear market signposts in a previous article. This article will look at the next few. Remember that, of the first 10, I felt 3 were irrelevant. The 11th signpost is triggered when the net percentage of consumers who think stocks will move up is…
My Top Three Market Lessons for 2017
In tonight's video newsletter update find out my top 3 market lessons for 2017. With these 3 invaluable lessons under your belt you should have a more consistent 2018. Watch this video now...
11 of 19 Bear Market Warnings Signaled
Bear Market Signals Triggered In previous articles, we've reviewed the 30 risks for 2018. Now let’s look at the 19 bear market signposts. As you can see from the image below, 11 of the 19 signposts have been triggered already. The first trigger is the Fed raising rates by more than 75 basis points. This…
Bitcoin May Have Topped
The Bitcoin Peak Might Be In There’s a belief system among long term investors in bitcoin, known as hodlers, that bitcoin will always rally. The concept is if this rally ends in an elongated correction of 50% or more, there will eventually be another rally which brings it to new heights a few years down…
Apple Premium Burn Strategy
In tonight's video newsletter update we look at a strategy that can be used in light Holiday trading. Specifically let's build a trade in AAPL and how we can take advantage of the quick burning premium or theta decay during the next few slow sessions. Watch this video to find out if the trade is…
Margin Expansion Expected To Drive Earnings 11.8% Higher In 2018
2017 Earnings Were Led By Energy, Materials, and Tech At the beginning of the year, I expected 5%-7% earnings growth for 2017 based on the trend of earnings reports missing estimates. As we’ve discussed throughout the year, this year has been different from the past few because it has come close to meeting the initial…
This Could Be The Longest Expansion Since 1854
Santa Clause Rallies Don’t Happen As Often As They Used To Stocks indexes were down slightly on Tuesday because of AAPL. Apple fell 2.54% because of reports of weak demand for the iPhone X. If the iPhone X sells badly, the company will shift its focus to lower priced products like the iPhone 8, hurting…